The IDF on Thursday discussed a variety of scenarios for how attempts to disarm Hamas and the opening of the Rafah Border Crossing will look.
In the background, IDF sources predicted that, absent a veto by US President Donald Trump, there is a high probability that the military will eventually return to some kind of sizable military operation against Hamas in order to ensure the disarmament process.
Regarding scenarios for disarming Hamas, the IDF rejected ideas which have been leaked by US officials of focusing at this stage on collecting Hamas’s “heavy” weapons, such as rockets and rocket-propelled grenades, for storage.
According to the IDF, placing these and any other Hamas weapons in storage would be essentially allowing them to keep their weapons, but just change their address.
Weapons in storage in Gaza won't slow down Hamas, says IDF
In fact, the IDF said that putting such weapons in storage in Gaza would barely even slow down Hamas from assembling its weapons as they would either control the limited storage guards or would easily overpower them.
Further, the IDF stated that merely collecting those kinds of heavy weapons would fall far short of being sufficient, as seizing Hamas’s Kalashnikov rifles would be crucial to limiting its lethal capacity in any battle with the military.
A large number of the October 7 victims were killed by Kalashnikov rifles, which are far more formidable and have a longer range than simpler handguns, which the IDF might be able to tolerate Hamas having for a longer period of time.
The IDF clarified that the International Stabilization Force (ISF) would not perform any significant duties within Hamas-controlled areas.
Rather, it would focus on new neighborhoods for Gazans in Israel-controlled portions of Gaza and on policing the Israel-Hamas yellow line, while other reports have said they will also handle some other border issues.
A metaphorical - 'lighter shade of green'
Next, the IDF said that in a best-case scenario, Hamas’s security control of Gaza might turn from its fully green color to a metaphorical lighter shade of green if the future Palestinian police force gets off the ground and can keep committed Hamas fighters within its ranks to a minimum.
Addressing the Rafah Crossing opening, the IDF delineated a complex arrangement of border checks.
The EUBAM organization will handle the main border checks for the Rafah Border Crossing going in and out of Gaza, reportedly with some Palestinian involvement.
Next, the IDF will do a second round of physical checks of all those entering Gaza after the EUBAM check.
Exiting Gaza for Egypt, the IDF will not undertake any physical checks, but will have video cameras taking pictures of the faces of all those exiting.
In addition, IDF sources recommended that despite all of the authorities being passed on to the Palestinian technocratic committee, EUBAM, and the ISF, the IDF avoid a complete withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, near the Rafah Crossing.
After discussing all of these meticulous, detailed plans, IDF sources said there was still a strong chance that Hamas would at some point thwart the disarmament process and that, unless Trump blocked Israel, the military would end up initiating a new operation to continue to move disarmament forward.