There is widespread expectation in the Middle East that the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which has been closed throughout the war that began on October 7, 2023, will be reopened this week.
The opening is expected to enable people to both enter Gaza and leave, and it would be the first time in more than two years that people will be able to do this with any kind of consistency. This is important, as the US seeks to move the Gaza ceasefire to the next stage. It builds on the announcement of the members of the Board of Peace in Davos and the appointment of key people to a Gaza Executive Board.
Nickolay E. Mladenov, the Board of Peace’s Gaza envoy, wrote last week that “I am pleased that an agreement has been reached regarding the preparation for the re-opening of the Rafah crossing. Concurrently, we are working with Israel and the National Committee for the administration of Gaza to expedite the search for the remaining Israeli hostage. I would especially like to thank Dr. Ali Shaath, the United States, Israel, and Egypt, for their dedicated efforts. We are currently coordinating logistics on implementing this agreement.”
On January 26, IDF troops returned the deceased hostage, St.-Sgt.-Maj. Ran Gvili, an important milestone, because it means after more than 840 days since October 7 there are now no hostages in Gaza. In fact, this is the first time since 2014 that there are no hostages in Gaza. This could help pave the way for progress in the Gaza ceasefire.
Israel’s priority is that Hamas will be disarmed. For the Trump administration, this goes hand-in-hand with reconstruction. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Israel on Saturday to meet Israel’s Prime Minister and discuss the next phase.
The opening of the Rafah crossing is an issue that many countries in the region care about. Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and other states want to see this happen as soon as possible. Al-Ain media in the UAE noted on January 26 that Israel had agreed to a “limited” opening of the crossing. It noted that “there is no specific time frame for reopening the crossing, which Israeli media had previously reported would be occur within the next two days.”
Nevertheless the expectation is that there is movement on this issue this week. Countries in the region are following closely developments in Jerusalem. They are watching how Israeli officials are describing the possible re-opening. These countries, some of them close friends and allies of the US, want the Trump plan to succeed. They are concerned that Israel may not fulfill its part of the plan, meaning they think that stumbling blocks may be placed; or that Rafah may be technically opened but that few people will be able to cross. Throughout the war after October 7 there was a push by some commentators in Israel to have Rafah opened only in one direction, essentially trying to get Gazans to leave Gaza, but not let them return. There were even suggestions that Gazans might be moved in large numbers to Libya or other places. Egypt has rejected any attempt to expel people from Gaza to Egypt, or pressure them to leave without them being allowed to return.
It should be recalled that during the war, there was also a lot of pressure for Israel to not go into Rafah, the city on the Gaza border with Egypt, at all. During the era after 1967 the urban sprawl of this city grew on both sides of the border, when Israel ran Sinai.
After the peace agreement with Egypt the border, also known in Israel as the Philadelphi corridor, was created. This area was a built-up area with homes right on the border. Over time tunnels were built under the border. Israel attempted at times, such as during the Second Intifada, to clear the corridor along the border to prevent smuggling and terrorism but the terror infrastructure regrew in the two decades between the clearing operations of the Intifada and 2023.
Israel held Rafah conquest as important
In early 2024 Israel decided to go back into Rafah, having attempted to clear Hamas out of northern Gaza and Khan Younis. This operation began in May 2024 and lasted until August. Large areas along the border were razed, so that buildings were no longer near the border, re-creating a border route along it. For Israel the conquest of Rafah was important. It also called the bluff of voices in the West who had said “all eyes on Rafah” and claimed the area could not be re-taken militarily. In fact, most of the civilians who had come to shelter in Rafah in late 2023 and early 2024, ended up evacuating and the IDF took control. Later, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation set up food distribution points in the area east of Rafah in May and June 2025.
This illustrates how important this area has become. Al-Ain news says that some details have emerged about what might happen. “The crossing is operated by European monitors and Palestinian staff, whom Israel has stipulated must not wear official Palestinian uniforms,” it says.
“The US administration had pressured Netanyahu to reopen the crossing within the next two days in both directions,” the Al-Ain report said on January 26.
Now, all eyes are on Rafah again. The questions is when it will open and how many people will be allowed to cross. In addition there will be questions about whether aid can now directly cross from Egypt.