China’s Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump met this week to discuss important developments between the two countries. Xi made an interesting comment about whether the US and China could avoid the “Thucydides Trap.”
Beijing has been messaging during this recent visit that the US and China need to avoid conflict. However, China clearly believes conflict could occur. The US appears to feel the same thing. At least in this case, the cards are on the table.
The term “Thucydides Trap” often refers to the work of Prof. Graham Allison of the Harvard Kennedy School, who has written about how a war in Greece in the 5th century BCE shapes the way history unfolds between various powers.
The Athenian historian Thucydides wrote an important classic on the Peloponnesian War, which pitted an alliance linked to Athens against one led by Sparta.
The concept is that the rise of Athens as a naval power with many colonies inevitably led to war with Sparta. “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable,” Thucydides is quoted as asserting. The translation from the Greek is also sometimes written as “the growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Lacedaemon, made war inevitable.”
The question of this “trap” of history has been raised before. Allison wrote about it when US President Barack Obama met the Chinese president. Alan Greeley Misenheimer has also written about the potential clash with China in a 2019 paper at the Naval War College.
Misenheimer notes that “in addition, it must be said the rational imperative of US national security policy requires prudential readiness for conflict with a roster of potential adversaries, including China, along with Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Our knowledge of history and our understanding of the contemporary world demand nothing less. At the same time, Thucydides and common sense concur in demanding that a rash assumption that war is inevitable is to be resisted, not least because it can become self-fulfilling.”
How are these conflicts similar?
THE QUESTION of the Greek city-state experience and modern conflict has been explored in relation to other conflicts, such as the Napoleonic Wars and World War I. How are these conflicts similar?
In the Napoleonic Wars, a rising revolutionary France threatened the order of Europe. This led to a coalition against France that brought together England, Russia, Prussia, Austria, and other states. France also assembled allies, occupied Spain, and reorganized Germany and Italy. However, in the end, France could not stand against so many adversaries.
In the Great War, the European powers slid into war in part due to Germany's rise. Germany had reunified in the 19th century and rapidly industrialized, building a navy that was on track to rival the Royal Navy. Germany had already defeated France, Austria, and Denmark, setting the stage for a Franco-Russian alliance, and then England joined the fray. Germany enlisted Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire in its alliance system. Germany and its allies lost, although Russia did collapse during the war.
Does the Thucydides Trap actually have much in common with these conflicts? In these conflicts, a rising power was eventually overstretched, leading to ruin, at least temporarily, for the rising power. China doesn’t appear on track to end up like Germany in WWI, Russia in the Cold War, or Revolutionary France. On the contrary, China appears to be slowly gaining strength, and it doesn’t seem to be challenged by anyone.
Is China more like Athens or Sparta? As a large landed power, isn’t China more like Sparta, and the US as an overstretched global power, more like Athens?
Athens, it should be recalled, became more aggressive over time. It engaged in suppressing other city-states. It was Athens that launched the disastrous expedition to Sicily during the war. It was Athens that lashed out.
Sparta, a much more conservative state led by a king who advised against war, was the more cautious of the two. Sparta is depicted as warlike in our cliché-ridden concepts, but it was actually the least warlike country. The US war on Iran and other adventures abroad make the US appear more like Athens.
As such, this could raise concerns in Beijing. It is Beijing that is openly saying it wants to avoid the “trap” of war, a stance that mirrors the advice of the king of Sparta, Archidamus II, setting the stage for the long-term defeat of Athens. Chaos in Athens, such as the death of Pericles and the antics of Alcibiades, also didn’t help the Athenians.
As such, the story of the “trap” is more complex than is often painted. It is Beijing urging the US to be cautious. China knows that it has challenges ahead. Demographic challenges are a big issue for China. It knows Washington is also lashing out globally and that US politics is chaotic.
As such, Beijing is waiting and wondering what comes next, much like Sparta did prior to the outbreak of war in 431 BCE.