The reestablishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Venezuela in March 2026 marked one of the most significant foreign policy reversals in recent history.
Notably, what US President Donald Trump achieved in Venezuela by arresting the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, and placing Delcy Rodríguez in power instead was not a full regime change.
Unlike what many expected in the first few hours, opposition leader María Corina Machado did not take control of Venezuela.
This case provides for a key lesson: regime change in highly unstable countries may not happen suddenly. Rather, it can often be a slow process.
The same applies to Iran. Whether Trump plans to support the Iranian opposition more directly or move forward with a model similar to Venezuela, there are key changes that will show regime change is truly underway. So far, we have not seen them.
How to know if Iranian regime change is really underway
First, the new leadership in Tehran must abandon its Marxist-Islamist ideology.
The communist (red) and Islamist (black) alliance that established the Islamic Republic does not allow the regime officials to decide based on what truly benefits the nation, or even what kind of foreign policy serves the regime’s long-term stability.
This alliance’s aim has always been to destroy what previous generations achieved based on real knowledge and experience. It started with Iran, then initiated instabilities across the Middle East, and it has now reached the West.
We are not sure who is currently leading Iran, but as soon as the fresh leadership chooses to collaborate based on cost and gain, we will see a real sign of change.
Only then will the regime abandon waging terror through the nuclear program, ballistic missiles, or its proxy groups.
This also means pivoting away from heavy dependence on China. Tehran remains part of Beijing’s sphere of influence, where China buys Iranian oil at low prices and provides political and military cover.
Further, reestablishing diplomatic ties with the US, severed after the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, would be another clear indicator.
These steps would also serve clear US interests, especially in light of Operation Epic Fury and the naval blockade aimed at weakening China’s influence in Iran.
Second, real steps must be taken toward political freedom and the demilitarization of politics.
Many say the Islamic Republic is a barbaric regime. Indeed, in its recent brutality during the January protests, it killed tens of thousands of peaceful protesters in the streets.
The regime continues to hold the bravest citizens of Iran in prison and hangs many for showing courage to demand their basic rights.
IT DOES not limit its suppression to inside the country, either. Just recently, the regime froze the assets of Iranian dissidents in exile, including athletes and journalists.
These actions demonstrate that the new leadership is still following the path set by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Basij militia and the IRGC remain the biggest barriers to moving forward. With even a small percentage of the population as armed supporters of the current Iranian leadership, as these groups are, control through fear is maintained.
Video clips depict them moving in the streets with military equipment to intimidate the public. Midnight rallies force people to pretend they support the regime.
Life in Iran today looks similar to life for Jews under the Nazi regime, where control was kept through an atmosphere of fear, paid and unpaid informants, and neighbors reporting on neighbors.
People in Iran hide their true identities and views on the war. Some are on the run from city to city, and regime forces still arrest those who joined the January pro-monarchy protests.
Until the regime disbands the Basij and subordinates the IRGC to real civilian control, the military will continue to dominate politics.
Third, running the economy based on the rule of law is necessary.
The IRGC exerts strong control over large parts of Iran’s economy by managing many major enterprises through front companies and monopolies.
This prevents any real economic change. Without the rule of law and an independent judiciary, any economic openness would only benefit the military-intelligence sphere, not the people.
Looking at the situation on the ground, the joint Israeli-US strikes have hit the IRGC hard, but the consequence has been severe economic hardship for ordinary people as well.
Very rapidly, the middle class is becoming poor. Many have lost their jobs. Even so-called private companies with ties to the IRGC, such as e-commerce platforms Digikala and Snap, have faced layoffs. Prices for essential goods are also steadily on the rise.
The current pressure is making the IRGC extremely weak, but still, we are not in the phase of economic improvement that a regime change in Iran entails.
Thanks to Trump’s historic action, the elimination of Khamenei and other top figures dealt a huge blow to the Islamic Republic.
However, the current leadership continues to operate according to the same old 47-year playbook. Until the minimum conditions listed are met, we are not witnessing transformation – we are only seeing a new form of IRGC control.
The writer is an Iranian artist, entrepreneur, and policy analyst who focuses on foreign policy and economic development. She is a postgraduate fellow at the London Center for the Study of Contemporary Antisemitism.