Israel must begin seriously advancing its core national interests: ending the war and returning the hostages, restoring its international standing, achieving an arrangement with the Palestinians, and expanding peace agreements with the Muslim world.
Personal and national interests
Shalom Aleichem once wrote of Motl, son of Peysi the Cantor, who proudly declared: “Happy am I—an orphan!” In the same vein, one might say: happy is the State of Israel, which has become a protectorate of the United States; happy are we that Donald Trump, rather than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is conducting Israel’s foreign policy.
Trump acts according to his personal interests and those of the United States, as he perceives them. Fortunately for Israel, at this particular moment, several of those major interests coincide with its own.
Netanyahu, by contrast, conducts Israel’s foreign and security policy according to his personal interests, even when they run counter to those of the state. His interest lies in prolonging the war that began with the October 7, 2023 disaster, for as long as possible.
The longer the war lasts, the more distant that dark day becomes, and the longer he can remain in power.
Israel’s interest, however, was and remains to end the war swiftly. The clash between Netanyahu’s private interest and the nation’s true interest is sharp and clear. It has overshadowed the war’s conduct and damaged its outcome throughout the two long years since it began.
Twelve days that ended a war
The Israel–Iran war lasted only twelve days. Netanyahu wanted to continue; Israel’s interest was to stop. Iran’s nuclear facilities had already been damaged as much as possible, and its missile program had suffered heavy blows. Yet Iran retained the ability to launch missiles toward Israel, which had already caused severe damage to the Haifa refineries, the Weizmann Institute, Soroka Hospital, and hundreds of residential apartments.
Continuing the fighting would have brought little additional benefit to Israel, while the potential harm from further missile barrages was immense. On the twelfth day of the war, as Israeli planes headed to strike Iranian targets, an action that would have triggered another wave of Iranian missiles on Israel, Trump ordered an immediate halt to the operation and the return of the planes.
Israel owes him thanks for stopping Netanyahu from continuing the war, escalating the Israeli losses, and for bringing the military aspect of this conflict to an end.
Two years in Gaza
The war in Gaza, by contrast, has dragged on for two years. Israel’s clear national interest dictates that if war is unavoidable, it must be as short as possible. The needless prolongation of this war has caused enormous damage to Israel and to the Jewish diaspora, damage from which recovery will not be easy.
Israel has become a pariah state, facing growing economic, academic, and cultural boycotts. Yet Netanyahu’s personal interest runs opposite to that of Israel, and lies in continuing the war, which allows him to remain in power.
Fortunately, Trump’s current interest, and that of the United States, aligns with Israel’s. He has ordered Netanyahu to end the Gaza war and reach an agreement.
Israel should be grateful for this, too, and hope that the war will indeed end, the hostages will return, and the country can begin to heal.
A Diplomatic Collapse
We must also consider the day after the war and what awaits Gaza. This question should have been addressed from the very start of the war, but Netanyahu showed no interest, and so it was ignored. Now we have to face it.
Militarily, Israel’s situation has improved: Hezbollah has been weakened and faces pressure to disarm; Hamas has suffered devastating losses; Syria has collapsed; and Iran has been pushed further from its nuclear ambitions.
Yet diplomatically, Israel has suffered a collapse of historic proportions. This political disaster largely offsets the battlefield gains. It has also become clear that Israel will not be able to annex territory in Gaza or the West Bank.
Meanwhile, Qatar has secured a US defense agreement, its legal standing questionable, yet sufficient to prevent any future Israeli strike there. Terrorists residing in Qatar may now enjoy de facto immunity. Qatar is the great victor of this war, and Turkey the lesser one, both hostile to Israel yet close allies of Washington.
Gaza’s Next Chapter
A new regime will arise in Gaza, almost certainly a Palestinian one. Israel can only hope to influence it to become a reformed authority, ending incitement against Israel and halting children’s education toward terror.
The international status of this new authority remains uncertain. The answer is not fully in Israel’s hands. Gaza’s land borders are controlled by Israel and Egypt. After Hamas violently seized power in Gaza, Israel, under Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, imposed a naval blockade on the strip. The blockade was entirely lawful, given that Gaza was ruled by a terrorist regime.
The legality of the blockade was examined in 2010 in the Mavi Marmara incident. The issue was handled excellently by retired Justice Jacob Turkel and Dr. Yosef Ciechanover, Israel’s representative to the UN committee that investigated the case.
The committee, by majority vote against the Turkish member, recognized the legality of Israel’s naval blockade. Sadly, both Turkel and Ciechanover have since passed away, yet the legal protection they secured for Israel remains valid as long as Hamas governs Gaza.
However, once a new, internationally recognized authority takes over, that legal shield will vanish. This brings us back to the Oslo Accords, which were never formally revoked but are now in partial collapse. Under those agreements, Palestinian imports and exports pass through Israel, which collects customs and VAT for the Palestinian Authority (and in any case controls entry and exit from the West Bank).
But a new governing entity in Gaza, whose adherence to the Oslo framework is uncertain, might establish direct maritime links with the world, perhaps even build an airport, and develop foreign relations. Some countries might open diplomatic missions in Gaza. Such moves could lay the foundation for a Palestinian state. In view of Israel’s current weak international position, it will most probably be unable to prevent this.
Restoring Israel’s standing
Amid this tangled reality, Israel must focus on its essential interests. First, it must restore its international standing, which has deteriorated to the point of existential concern. Second, it must renew and expand peace agreements with the Muslim world. These goals align with a third, equally crucial aim: achieving an arrangement with the Palestinians.
Admittedly, the current war hampers such an effort - feelings of revenge, hatred, and suspicion run deep on both sides. Israel will find it difficult to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state, even a demilitarized one, yet it is unclear whether we can prevent it.
From Israel’s standpoint, it would be preferable to propose, at least as a first stage, autonomy for the Palestinians, the same arrangement once signed by Menachem Begin as part of the peace agreement with Egypt. It is also worth recalling that Trump removed from the agenda both the idea of annexing the West Bank or Gaza territories and of applying Israeli sovereignty there. It is hard to believe he will change his position, and any future US president will certainly not be more accommodating.
In any case, an agreement with the Palestinians, one that includes effective guarantees for Israel’s security—could mark a dramatic step toward restoring Israel’s global standing and easing the strain on Jewish communities abroad. Combined with expanded peace accords with the Muslim world, such a move could rehabilitate and even elevate Israel’s position, while helping to push the Iranian threat further away.
Prof. Daniel Friedmann is a former Minister of Justice of Israel.