Following the historic strike over the weekend by the US of Iran’s nuclear reactors and the continued targeting of Iranian targets by the Israel Air Force, the war between Israel and Iran is at a crossroads.
Assessments must be made about the extent that the Iranian threat has been muted and what more can be achieved by continued warfare.
US President Donald Trump, who stood up and acted presidential in ordering the massive strikes on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, does not like prolonged conflicts.
With Iran signaling that it would like to return to the negotiating table with the US if Israel stopped its assault, Trump is likely to move in that direction and put pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wrap up the war.
Even if it means that Tehran will retain some of its firepower and the brutal Iranian regime remains in power in a vastly weakened state, its ability to remain a viable and existential threat to Israel has been pushed back for years to come, according to Israeli security assessments.
The question is if those achievements will be enough for Netanyahu, who, after decades of obsessively pursuing Iran, has in the last 10 days, realized most of his goals in securing the safety and future of the Jewish people in Israel.
Just like the situation in Gaza with Hamas, can Israel leave its mortal enemy in Tehran in place when it’s on the ropes and staggering?
Although toppling the regime was not considered a goal of the IDF when Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran on June 13, it’s difficult to imagine that it wasn’t in the back of the minds of everyone sitting around the war room in an undisclosed site in Israel.
Yes, we need to rid Iran of nukes, they might have reasoned, but wouldn’t it be nice if the ayatollahs were also taken out, replaced by a government not aimed at world domination?
While the Islamic Republic looks weaker than at nearly any point since soon after the 1979 revolution, it’s still in control of the country. Any significant challenge to its 46-year rule would require some form of popular uprising.
Although there are ample anecdotal reports of protests against the regime inside Iran and indications that support for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is evaporating, there is no cohesive opposition coalescing inside Iran to move into its place if the regime falls.
The two most organized groups are abroad: the pro-monarchy supporters of Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah of Iran, and the exiled Mojahedin-e Khalq Organisation (MEK/MKO).
Pahlavi, on Monday at a press conference in Paris, called for regime change in Iran and announced that he would be forming an opposition front.
'This is Iran's Berlin Wall moment'
“This is our Berlin Wall moment,” he said, telling Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “step down. And if you do, you will receive a fair trial and due process of law. Which is more than you have ever given any Iranian.”
According to Sharona Mazalian, a respected researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies, Tel Aviv University, as it stands now, Iran’s disparate minority populations would have a difficult time getting together to take on the IRGC.
In her assessment, removing the regime without a stable alternative in place “could lead to civil wars, extremist factions, suffering for civilians, and regional instability.
“Instead of one state – democratic or not – we could see the rise of smaller dictatorships, sometimes even more extreme, and unchecked chaos. Such a scenario could lead to regional wars and foreign powers stepping in to carve up the territory according to their own interests.”
Creating another unstable and potentially dangerous entity is not in Israel’s interests, and therefore, striving for a regime change before the war comes to an end should remain off the agenda.
Israel has its hands filled on the military front, and, no matter how tempting and in-reach it may be to topple Khamenei and his henchmen from power, it’s wise to let the situation on the ground in Iran play out on its own and not force a situation that would ultimately not be to Israel’s benefit..
Going back to the words of Mazalian, “The Iranian people deserve to reclaim their country, along with freedoms, human rights, and a government that invests in them – not in spreading terror and destruction.”
But a change in regime in Iran, no matter how much we may want it and how much the world would benefit from it, needs to come from within.