With ceasefires unraveling on nearly every front, Israel is once again confronting the unstable reality of the Middle East.
The coming weeks will decide whether the Jewish state drifts back into wider wars or secures at least one border that stays quiet. In the Gaza Strip, a failed rocket launch aimed at Israeli territory has reignited fears that expanded operations there are becoming inevitable.
Israel cannot treat even a misfire as background noise while Hamas holds an Israeli as a bargaining chip and keeps its fighting capability intact. Israel’s leaders face a familiar dilemma: Respond hard enough to restore deterrence, and avoid a spiral that buries diplomacy.
Israel faces foreign pressure to move to Phase II of Gaza Deal
The ceasefire’s implementation has stalled over the awaited return of Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage whose remains are still held in Gaza.
Israel has resisted efforts by American, Qatari, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators to enter Phase II of the deal, insisting that the ceasefire will not progress until Gvili is returned and Hamas is fully disarmed.
That demand reflects a basic reality: A ceasefire that leaves Hamas armed leaves Israel exposed.
As days and weeks pass without movement, Hamas has grown more emboldened. The planned International Stabilization Force (ISF) remains mostly theoretical, because other nations have shown little readiness to send forces that could actually stand between Hamas and the IDF.
Hamas leaders now openly reject the same disarmament they agreed to when the ceasefire took effect, betting that the world will pressure Israel harder than it pressures them.
Israel should answer with enforceable benchmarks. Mediators can keep channels open, but Phase II needs a definition of what disarmament means in practice, who verifies it, and what happens when Hamas violates the terms.
Without milestones, the process becomes a loop of delays and threats, followed by another round of fighting.
Along the Lebanese border, Hezbollah remains a threat to Israel’s security despite attempts by the Lebanese Armed Forces to monopolize arms south of the Litani River.
On Thursday, the Lebanese army declared it had achieved full operational control in southern Lebanon, with the exception of five Israeli-controlled outposts a few hundred meters from the border. The statement did not mention Hezbollah.
It remains to be seen whether Lebanon’s “operational control” will deter Hezbollah terrorists from launching attacks on Israel, or whether Lebanese forces will act to prevent such attacks before Israel does.
Until Lebanon proves it can restrain Hezbollah on the ground, the IDF will keep striking Hezbollah targets and infrastructure, as it has continued to do over the past days, weeks, and months.
Amid the precarious state of ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza, the northeastern border with Syria stands out as the one arena where tangible developments have taken place in recent days.
In US-mediated talks earlier this week, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint “fusion mechanism” to serve as a communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial issues.
Jerusalem and Damascus also agreed to hold talks on cooperation in civilian areas, including medicine, energy, and agriculture, The Jerusalem Post’s Amichai Stein reported.
Israel remains doubtful about Syria's Sharaa
Doubts about Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa remain strong in Israel’s political and military echelons.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have accepted US President Donald Trump’s request to give Sharaa a chance. Israel should take the opening seriously and test it with hard requirements.
For Israel, a successful security understanding with Syria would preserve its ability to secure itself through control on the ground while laying the foundations for wider communication and cooperation.
The rare joint statement released on Tuesday signals Israel’s willingness to try a different approach on the Syrian front while tying any diplomatic steps to the protection of Druze minorities in the area.
That condition offers a real indicator of whether Damascus can govern responsibly and keep hostile actors away from the border.
As ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza remain in limbo, Israel now has a rare opportunity to pacify the Syrian border and strengthen the security of its northern communities.
Jerusalem should define redlines, demand verification, and keep freedom of action intact. It must also remain wary of a weak agreement that collapses at the first test.
The potential benefits feel closer than they did a week ago, including an image that once sounded absurd: Israelis and Syrians sharing Mount Hermon in peace – even if that vision starts with a jointly operated ski resort.