Israel and Lebanon could be heading toward a way to head off war between the IDF and Hezbollah. A year after the November ceasefire, there is much concern that if Hezbollah doesn’t disarm, then war clouds loom in 2026.
The US likely doesn’t want to see another conflagration in the region, however, and Jerusalem knows that Israelis are tired of war. Hezbollah also wants to preserve itself and not slouch, zombie-like, into another conflict.
Therefore, no one has an interest in war. History tells us that although “you may not be interested in war, war is interested in you,” a quote attributed to Soviet revolutionary and political theorist Leon Trotsky.
War may be on the horizon, but a recent meeting on the border appears to suggest it could be prevented.
“At the direction of Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, and as part of the ongoing security dialogue between the US, Israel, and Lebanon, the deputy head of the Foreign Policy Division at the National Security Council held a meeting this morning in Naqoura, Lebanon, with the US president’s adviser on the issue of Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, and with relevant Lebanese civilian representatives,” the Prime Minister’s Office reported Thursday.
“The meeting took place in a good atmosphere,” it said. “It was agreed that ideas would be formulated to advance possible economic cooperation between Israel and Lebanon. Israel clarified that the disarmament of Hezbollah is obligatory, regardless of the advancement of economic cooperation.”
There will now be a follow-up discussion. The meeting at UN headquarters in Naqoura on the border with Israel is a key development. One might wonder why it didn’t take place earlier this year.
Both Israel and Lebanon appear to be dragging their feet in some regard. Israeli media outlets often suggest that war could be around the corner.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese are still happy about the visit of the pope this week. The Lebanese delegation was headed by former Lebanese ambassador to the US Simon Karam, according to reports.
Can Lebanon overcome threat of war?
Lebanon is concerned that Israel could still carry out strikes despite the talks, Ynet reported. Israel has struck Hezbollah targets hundreds of times over the past year.
“Does this mean we have overcome the threat of war?” Lebanese newspaper Al Joumhouria asked Thursday. Although there is optimism, Jerusalem must weigh its decisions against what is happening on various fronts.
Israel has been asked by the Trump administration to reduce tensions with Syria. The US also wants the Gaza deal to move to phase two.
Hamas must return the last remaining hostage from Gaza. It is momentous that almost all the hostages are home since the October 13 ceasefire.
As such, the Lebanon meeting is a kind of milestone. That it took a year to get to this milestone is concerning.
Lebanon needs to see if it can move forward with disarming Hezbollah. Israel may also need to explain what it means by “disarmament.”
A lack of clarity means that war clouds will continue to gather – or at the very least linger.