According to reports in Arabic media, there is intense diplomatic activity in Lebanon to prevent the country from slouching toward an increased crisis with Israel.
Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah members this week, and US envoy Morgan Ortagus was in Lebanon for talks with high-ranking officials. The goal is to disarm Hezbollah, but the group rejects disarmament. Al-Ain media reported that “Hezbollah faces a test of international will.”
“Between Israel’s raids on southern Lebanon and the threat of a wider confrontation on one side, and Hezbollah’s insistence on refusing to implement the government’s decision to restrict weapons to the state, the Lebanese state is living through a frantic race, the consequences of which observers warn will be dire for Lebanon’s security and stability,” Al-Ain reported.
This means that a number of issues are coming together at the same time, including Hezbollah saying it will not disarm. Now diplomatic activity is increasing, said Al-Ain, which is based in the UAE and reflects Abu Dhabi’s desire for tensions to be reduced.
The report said that “the flurry of activity included visits by... Ortagus and Egyptian General Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Hassan Rashad, while local media reported on an expected visit by US Special Envoy Tom Barrack to Beirut. Amid this movement, will the final word be for diplomatic de-escalation, or for military escalation and renewed confrontation?”
A Lebanese researcher told Al-Ain that the diplomatic efforts – with Arab countries supporting the US policy – will not yield results unless Hezbollah agrees to change. The choice now enters a critical phase. It is almost a year since Hezbollah received a major setback from Israeli strikes and a ceasefire was agreed.
“Hezbollah’s continued refusal to subject its weapons to the authority of the state proves that it stands against the interest of the Lebanese people, and puts all of Lebanon as a hostage to an Iranian expansionist project, and the failure of all attempts at reform or economic protection,” the expert said.
Egypt is also seeking to play a wider role, as it has sought to do in Gaza. “The Lebanese analyst called for the need to take advantage of the joint American and Arab diplomatic movement,” the report said. “This movement represents an unprecedented opportunity to ensure that political and security decisions return to their legitimate institutions, away from the Iranian influence that controls Hezbollah.”
A second expert said the issues now relate to the following: “The availability of a real Lebanese will toward implementing the decision to disarm Hezbollah, or implementing the decision by force, but it does not seem that it will make this decision at this moment.”
The second analyst said, “Lebanon will remain an arena for further Israeli attacks and for conflict in the Middle East, in which Lebanon is used by Iran and Israel to send messages to each other, unless Hezbollah is disarmed.”
According to a second report, there was a recent meeting at Nakoura in southern Lebanon on the border with Israel. The goal was “to review the progress made by the Lebanese Army in maintaining the cessation of hostilities arrangements and strengthening disarmament efforts in Lebanon. The session, hosted by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, included US Gen. Joseph Clearfield, the committee chairman, and envoy Morgan Ortagus, as well as senior representatives from all delegations.”
The report noted that “during the committee meeting, the Lebanese Army provided a detailed operational update, highlighting a recent operation to clear an underground facility near Wadi al-Aziya, where the operation resulted in a comprehensive survey of the area, with plans to revisit it later.”
The report said that Ortagus said: “We continue to follow developments in Lebanon, and we welcome the government’s decision to put all weapons under the control of the Lebanese state by the end of the year.”
The goal is to get the Lebanese Army to fulfill the plan. This means dismantling Hezbollah’s weapons south of the Litani River.
It remains to be seen if this will happen.
Lebanon faces crucial crossroads as Hezbollah rejects disarmament