“The concept of the package deal in the framework of international politics and conflict resolution,” says Shraga F. Biran, president of the Institute for Structural Reforms, “plays a significant role in breaking deadlocks and reaching sustainable agreements.”
Biran says that the problems of the Middle East – the Iran War, the Gaza War, and the return of the hostages – can all be solved in the context of a package deal mediated and coordinated by the world’s two leading superpowers, the United States and China, joined by the other regional powers interested in regional reconstruction and development towards peace.
Only the United States and China, he explains, possess the ability and resources to partner in creating an overall solution to the problems that have plagued the Middle East for decades. Linking issues together, he says, can make agreements more likely, creating a dynamic where leaders can finalize a deal that can be presented to their citizens in a more efficient and acceptable manner. According to Biran, the real decision-makers in the region are the great powers – the US and China. If they both agree on a package framework for Iran and Gaza, then no one can stop them.
This proposal of the Institute for Structural Reforms is based upon two decades of research, during which they have published several works on the sinister interrelations between poverty, fundamentalism, and terror, including a book published shortly after the war with Hamas broke out.
Why is now an opportune time for a “package deal” to solve the issues confronting the Middle East?
The end of the Gaza war is in sight, while the tail of the Iranian snake has been severed, following Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Iran in the early morning hours of June 13 and the US bombing of nuclear sites in Iran, thereby proving the US to be a true partner of Israel in this war. Now we are praying for the people of Iran, in the hope that they shall create a new, liberated Iran.
The script has flipped for Israel and the Middle East; the horrific October 7 attack might have been a crowning achievement for Iran, but the axis of evil is now in shambles after the Iranian proxies were overpowered across the region: the ruthless al-Assad family was ousted in Syria, Iran’s power has been significantly lessened, and Hezbollah has been weakened dramatically in Lebanon as the country begins its rehabilitation with the help of foreign powers. The leadership of Hamas’s military and political wings in Gaza is mostly eliminated, as well as most of its military capabilities and manpower.
The current ceasefire with Iran is creating an opportunity to change the modus operandi as new actors enter the stage, primarily the US and China.
What is China’s interest in the Middle East, and why should they be involved in a package deal?
China is well-positioned to be a game-changing player in the region. Ideologically speaking, its views on counterterrorism and development are deeply rooted in two of President Xi’s primary strategic policies: The Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI), which are part of a broader strategy to advance a Chinese vision for the global order. One of the GSI’s underpinning principles is “taking a proactive approach to address difficult issues.” Acting on this principle, China has set a “wave of reconciliation" across the Middle East by playing an active role in the political settlement of regional issues, e.g. sending peacekeeping troops to Lebanon and successfully facilitating a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran which led to a long-term ceasefire in the Yemen war, by using Beijing’s leverage on Teheran and its good ties with Saudi Arabia. This is an extraordinary achievement, considering that the Yemen War raged for eight years between the Houthis (Iran’s proxy in Yemen) and a Saudi-led coalition, claiming the lives of about 400,000 people, directly and indirectly, until China intervened in 2023.
What is the Chinese way of solving disputes?
The model of Chinese diplomacy in Yemen can be replicated in the case of Iran and Hamas, especially when considered against Beijing’s aspiration to assume the role of mediators in the region. As China is the main facilitator of Iran’s oil trade in the face of international sanctions, Iran is almost completely dependent on China economically. China is consistently utilizing this leverage to stop Iran’s nuclearization efforts, and it can also utilize it to stop Iran’s sponsorship of its proxies in Gaza and elsewhere. Moreover, as part of its regional engagement, China, under President Xi, has clearly and consistently expressed its willingness to play an active role in finding a peaceful and mutually beneficial solution to the conflict in the Middle East, which can be implemented through negotiations following the current ceasefire with Iran. Considering its recent condemnation of Hamas, it is the first time China has offered its services to facilitate an agreement that takes into account all existing interests.
Why do you think cooperation between the US and China will permanently eradicate state terrorism in Gaza?
If terrorist wars are ultimately wars between state powers, the decision to end those wars is ultimately up to these very powers. Whether they are using force and/or diplomacy, it is up to the powers to decide the results and arrangements of the war’s end as well as those of the “day after.” This is true for almost any international conflict in an increasingly bipolar world order, where American and Chinese spheres of influence overlap almost everywhere and often work in tandem.
The alliance between Israel and the US regarding Iran’s terrorism is an undisputed fact. However, Washington cannot broker geopolitical arrangements of this magnitude alone and, therefore, should cooperate with Beijing to that end, considering the immense leverage China has over Iran and Russia. China essentially supports the four objectives Netanyahu set for the war with Iran: to significantly weaken Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile capabilities, and its regional influence, and create the conditions for long-term deterrence of its nuclear and missile programs by diplomatic means.
This is equally true in the case of the war in Gaza. Israel and its Jewish allies in the US should come together and call on the two superpowers to end the war, eliminate Hamas indefinitely, and determine what the “day after” will look like through the reconstruction and redevelopment of Gaza. These immense tasks should be carried out by an international task force led by the US and China, with the participation of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Why is an international task force so crucial?
The terrorist activities sponsored by Iran in the Middle East have frequently been called “terrorism by proxy,” but that is largely incorrect. It would be more accurate to call it (inter)state terrorism. Since 9/11, terrorism worldwide has shifted gradually from mere local insurgencies and sporadic attacks to (inter)state terrorism.
During the nearly two decades of Hamas rule, poverty and unemployment skyrocketed, and Hamas did nothing to transform the dire conditions in Gaza or rehabilitate the refugee camps, focusing its activities on bolstering its military capabilities and exploiting human misery as “capital” to be traded for foreign aid and support. Hamas sprouted as a religious charity organization and used fundamentalist teachings to recruit soldiers for jihad wars while offering basic income to poor Gazans as the leading employer in Gaza.
Iran became Hamas’s largest state-sponsor, providing it with weapons, training, and billions of dollars in funding over the years. Iran was behind the horrendous blitz of October 7 that launched a regional war, an act of war that epitomized the new kind of terrorism.
Terrorist organizations backed by middle and great powers are employing cutting-edge technologies, including AI, in a way that enhances asymmetrical warfare. Their funding and methods of organization and control have radically changed. Instead of guerrilla fighters, Hamas and Hezbollah employed modern armies with more than 70,000 soldiers combined against Israel during 2023-2024, not to mention the direct attacks by Iran.
However, Hamas differs from other state-sponsored terrorist organizations, as it has operated as the sole sovereign in Gaza for almost two decades. Because there is no other functioning local government in Gaza to replace Hamas once it’s gone (as opposed to the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon, for example), the establishment of an interim government led by an international task force is essential.
Has China’s position on the Israel-Hamas War changed?
China opposed and condemned the “barbarous attack” of October 7. Six months ago, Xiao Junzheng was appointed as the Chinese ambassador to Israel. He recently declared that the “atrocities committed by Hamas are inhumane, unforgivable and also outrageous,” a statement never heard so explicitly before from Beijing. This represents a renewed attempt by China to reaffirm and demonstrate its stable friendship with Israel, which is deeply rooted.
In an article addressed to the Israeli public, the Ambassador called for opening a “new chapter” in China-Israel relations, noting that “the Chinese and Jewish people each possess a long history and an ancient civilization, and enjoy a time-honored friendship that continues to flourish.” He cited the fact that during World War II, 20,000 Jewish refugees found shelter in China, a country in which “there has never been antisemitism.”
Can you elaborate on China’s role in regional development?
China’s involvement in Middle East stability also stems from its extensive economic interests in the region. Its presence in the area is a fait accompli. The majority of foreign direct investments in the region originates from China, accounting for $29.5 billion out of a total of $92 billion in 2016. The region is one of the most important components of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ global development initiative (BRI), in which $1.3 trillion has been invested worldwide. In 2022, 60% of China’s BRI investments reached the Middle East.
Most of China’s energy resources are imported from Saudi Arabia. In addition, China’s interests in the region are closely tied to the smooth movement of goods along the global trade routes of the Belt and Road Initiative, including the Pakistan Corridor, whose impact on development has been compared to that of the Marshall Plan.
Moreover, it should be noted that domestic and transnational Islamist terrorism represents a growing concern for China, which has a Muslim population of 25 million. Since 9/11, China has been committed to fighting “the three evils” of terrorism, separatism, and religious extremism. Therefore, the eradication of Islamist terrorism is a shared interest of the two great powers.
How does China view Iran's political prospects?
China’s investment in regional development aligns with its aforementioned GDI strategy, which states that “development is the master key to all problems, and it is also the prerequisite for safeguarding world peace.” This strategy sets the eradication of world poverty as a global priority.
The Chinese stance, as expressed in official documents, is that they expect and hope for a regime change in Iran, stressing that Iran’s fundamentalist leadership is aging and that the Iranian people prefer reforms over revolution.
Considering the differences between Trump’s capitalist worldview and Xi’s worldview, how can they find a shared language regarding the Middle East?
Remarkably, the official positions of both the American and Chinese administrations, regarding the war on terror and the Middle East, point toward an excellent chance of cooperation between the superpowers, ideologically and politically speaking.
At times, they even use the same language. They both speak the same language because both want to make history. However, to achieve this, they both require each other’s cooperation.
Is there a similarity between Trump’s and Xi’s doctrines concerning the war on terror?
Following are direct quotes from official statements from both leaders (Presidents Trump and Xi) and their respective administrations that illustrate the similarities between their positions.
Terrorism as a global threat:
Trump Administration: Terrorist organizations are the “scourge of all civilized peoples.”
Xi Administration: “Terrorism is an international scourge and a common enemy of mankind.”
Fundamentalism as a root cause of terrorism:
Trump Administration: Jihadi terrorists are “fanatics who advance a totalitarian vision for a global Islamist caliphate that justifies murder and slavery and promotes repression.”
Xi Administration: “Influenced and controlled by religious extremism, some people have engaged in, or have been instigated, coerced, or enticed to engage in terrorist activities.”
Terminating Iran’s nuclear proliferation
Trump Administration: “As long as I am President of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.”
Xi Administration: “Iran should continue honoring its commitment to not developing nuclear weapons.”
How can Gaza be changed into a successful state?
Gaza can be turned into a success, but not through philanthropy. Philanthropy can lead to parasitism and will not solve the problems of Gaza. It needs to be rehabilitated through sound business investment.
A recent estimate by the World Bank placed the recovery and reconstruction needs of Gaza at $53.2 billion. However, most of the development projects are income-generating and should be financed by the private sector while providing employment and income for the poverty-stricken population. Flexible mortgages could secure housing reconstruction and redevelopment costs. Granting titles to new housing after half of the repayment is completed should be subject to the prospective owners and their families severing ties with Hamas. Moreover, rehabilitation offers an opportunity for a comprehensive transformation of Gaza’s spatial planning, including a modern rezoning of the land to benefit Gazans, starting from existing plans, such as those recently prepared by Bir Zeit University. After 7-10 years of rehabilitation, reconstruction, development, demilitarization, and de-Hamasization, the Arab dream of Palestinian statehood in Gaza could be fulfilled so that only blooming boulevards will separate the Gaza Envelope and the Gaza Strip.
Are conditions in Iran ripe for an eventual regime change?
The existing theocratic regime has been fighting against modernization in Iran for the last 46 years, thereby setting generations of young Iranians against it, while some of them are now filling the jails. Recent surveys show that 80% of the population opposes the current regime. This is enough to generate a significant cry for a regime change, but there’s also another factor. Poverty and disparities in wealth, income, housing, and education should also be taken into account. The wealthiest 10% of Iranian citizens hold a disproportionately large share of the national income (more than half), while the bottom 10% struggle to meet their basic needs, earning less than 1/5 of the national income. Iran's Misery Index, a calculation that combines unemployment and inflation rates, reached a record high of 60.4% in 2023.
International sanctions imposed on Iran have struck lower and middle-income families hardest, and privatization and corruption have enriched the country’s power elites, particularly businesses linked to the Revolutionary Guards. In short, Iran’s socioeconomic divide is deepening, particularly due to structural inequalities (e.g., corruption, centralization, economic mismanagement, sanctions, and inflation).
Oppression, theocratic rule, and poverty have created the basis for an uprising of the Iranian people against their rulers, especially after the recent Israeli and American attacks that weakened the clerical regime and the military control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps over the population.
I have always believed that the State of Israel and the Jewish people have to become stronger and stronger, fully protected by the deterrence of the Israeli security forces and their innovative technology, which proved itself tremendously during this war. It’s a blessing for Israel and the Jewish people to have many allies—after all, two are better than one.
Israel should initiate the incorporation of the US and China into negotiations with Iran, especially in light of China’s change in position regarding October 7, their diplomatic will, and regional development interests. The lesson I draw from the history of Israel and the Jewish people, including our recent wars, is that we must fight international terrorism wherever and whenever it develops.
The historic gains of the heroic and sophisticated Israeli security forces have to be safeguarded in the framework of the negotiations taking place in the following days. The reemergence of terror in the Middle East should not be an option ever again. The war against international terrorism is, in and of itself, a sacred mission — especially in light of the fact that international terrorism pathologically feeds hatred against Israel, which is rooted in antisemitic ideologies.
This article was written in cooperation with the Institute for Structural Reforms