Disarming Hamas is a fantasy that Israeli political and military echelons need to recognize as unrealistic, Oded Ailam, former head of Mossad's Counterterrorism Division said in a Tuesday interview.
He expects another round of fighting in the future and commented on US President Donald Trump’s emissaries to the region. "It’s hard to hear. None of us want this. I don’t see Latif from Indonesia and Ahmed from the Emirates running through alleys and disarming Hamas. That won’t happen. The whole system Trump is building, based on a wishful thinking fantasy, is unrealistic. It doesn’t align with the multi-layered archaeology and geology of the Middle East, which spans thousands of years. Hamas won’t commit suicide in the middle of the day and won’t disarm. First, we need to let this fantasy dissipate."
He discussed the fact that no country was eager to act to disarm Hamas. "They’re going to organize Hollywood films, or reality shows - things Trump really likes, with Kalashnikovs reaching [former British prime minister] Tony Blair’s feet, and all kinds of signatures. This is exactly what they’ll do to dismantle the bomb called 'de-militarization of Gaza.' Here, Israel will certainly have a difficult problem."
"I didn’t believe that Hamas would reach such distress that would ultimately force them to release their best cards," Ailam said following the operation that returned St.-Sgt.-Maj. Ran Gvili's remains to Israel.
"This is primarily due to military pressure," he added. "I know people are trying to say, 'It’s Trump.' That’s true. Trump, and the Turks, had a significant part in it. What drove Hamas to take action was the recognition that the IDF was going to go all-out: without gloves and with many tanks. They understood that their fate was going to be sealed. This was the main reason, along with American and Turkish pressure."
According to Ailam, since Trump was re-elected, his involvement has changed the power dynamics, especially when compared to the Biden administration. "The meaning is that the Americans now have a very significant foothold in the region, something that wasn’t there before. Certainly not in previous administrations, not even in Trump’s first term. Many decisions will be made in Washington, not in Jerusalem."
He claimed that Hamas knew what their fate would be if they disarmed. "In the past, they threw Fatah members from the 14th floor. Here, there’s a minor technical problem, there are no more 14th floors in Gaza. The other techniques work very well, and Hamas knows this well. The biggest fear there is settling internal scores."
'We can't be too picky': Ailam on Gaza militias
Ailam also addressed the issue of militias in Gaza, saying that Israel’s options are limited. "We can’t be too picky here and conduct a security check on every militia member with 'three references.' We have to rely on what we have right now. None of them are saints. Most are drug dealers and criminals. And this is what we’ve got."