The political drama this week was many things, but what it was not was a breakthrough in the decades-long haredi evasion of IDF service.
The week culminated with an agreement between Shas, Degel Hatorah, Knesset legal advisors, and Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee (FADC) chairman on an outline for a haredi draft bill, and an ensuing failed attempt by the opposition to launch a Knesset dispersal bill.
The result was a bill that was not fundamentally different than the two previous haredi draft bills, in 2002 and 2014, both of which were eventually deemed unequal and therefore unconstitutional. The current outline of the agreement, even if the details are still unclear, includes annual draft quotas and sanctions against both individuals who ignored draft orders and yeshivot that did not meet the quota. Edelstein hailed the agreement as historic, since the haredim themselves have never before agreed to the scope of sanctions included in the bill.
But a closer look at the sanctions revealed that the so-called personal sanctions, which would apply immediately, are not so damaging. They block access to leaving the country, getting a driver’s license, and block subsidies on academic tuition costs and tax credit points. For the most part, these would not significantly affect many young haredi yeshiva students. In the meantime, the law will free up funds to yeshivot that are currently frozen because of students’ draft evasion.
Furthermore, the quotas themselves may already be a nonstarter, since the IDF has already announced that it has the capacity to recruit the entire haredi “pool” of eligible men by 2026. The legal basis of only requiring approximately 10,000 recruits out of the approximately 80,000 eligible men is unclear.
Edelstein and most of the coalition’s MKs remained quiet on Thursday, as criticisms of the agreement began to emerge from opposition MKs and reservists’ organizations. Likud MK Dan Illouz, who has insisted on an effective bill, issued a reserved opinion on Thursday afternoon, stating that he would still need to examine the details before putting his weight behind it.
The three haredi factions in the Knesset did not present a united front during the negotiations, and any existing cooperation between them began to crumble on Thursday after Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf announced his resignation. Agudat Yisrael itself was split, as each MK adhered to directives from his respective Rebbe. MKs Yaakov Tessler (Hassidut Vizhnitz) and Moshe Roth (Hassidut Tsanz) sided with Goldknopf and the opposition and supported the Knesset dispersal bill, while MK Yisrael Eichler (Belze) voted against it.
Shas represented the dovish wing in the negotiations and showed the most flexibility. While some of its rabbis have completely rejected the idea of IDF service, many of its MKs served in the IDF, and the non-haredi traditional wing of its electorate serves in the IDF as well.
The outcome of Wednesday night’s vote was ultimately decided by the Lithuanian Degel Hatorah. If Degel Hatorah’s leading rabbis, Dov Lando and Moshe Hirsch, had not agreed to delay for a week, Shas would likely have supported the dispersal as well, according to a number of analysts. The reasons were twofold – first, they still consider the Lithuanian rabbis are still considered the ultimate spiritual heads of the haredi world, and second, the concern that a draft bill would mostly target Sephardic haredim, who are more integrated in Israeli society than their Lithuanian counterparts.
A new Knesset dispersal bill won't be on the table for six more months
According to Knesset rules, a new Knesset dispersal bill will no longer be on the table for six more months. The opposition’s decision to go through with the vote despite knowing it would not pass removed key leverage in Degel Hatorah’s negotiations. The party can threaten to leave the coalition, but that will not have the same effect, as it will not necessarily herald a new election. Eventually, however, Degel and Shas could side with the opposition and enact a special procedure to enable a new dispersal bill.
In conclusion, the situation after the smoke cleared on Thursday was that the draft bill agreements may be dead in the water, and that the coalition has effectively shrunk from 68 members to 64 or 65. Other than this, the core issues remain unsolved, and the coalition is still standing, much like at the beginning of the week.
All this, while 55 hostages continue to languish or decay in Hamas captivity.