Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is currently expected to enter the Knesset with 54 seats, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) announced on Wednesday morning after over four million votes were counted.
Netanyahu's Likud is projected to enter with 27 seats, while United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit are expected to enter with seven seats, and the Religious Zionist Party is expected to enter with six seats, respectively.
The opposition bloc, comprising Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats, is expected to enter the Knesset with 49 seats, according to data from the CEC.
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar is projected to enter the Knesset with 22 seats. B'Yachad, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is expected to enter with 12 seats. Yair Golan's Democrats are expected to enter the Knesset with eight seats, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu is expected to enter with seven.
The latest results by the CEC put 19 seats in the Arab parties, with the Joint List having 11 seats and Ra'am having six seats in the next Knesset.
Could Israel be heading toward a unity gov't - or another election?
The prospect of a unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot has appeared unlikely, as Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation government. Other opposition leaders have also ruled out joining a coalition led by the prime minister.
Eisenkot has called for the leader of the largest party in the opposition bloc to become its candidate for prime minister, though no agreement on the arrangement has been announced within the bloc.
The exit polls also raised the possibility of a minority government that could win a Knesset confidence vote without holding an absolute majority of 61 seats. However, opposition within the bloc to relying on Arab parties could complicate such an arrangement.
The political deadlock could ultimately lead to another election, although the parties may still reach an agreement through coalition negotiations.
What did Israeli polls indicate on election night?
No clear winner emerged in Israel’s election, according to exit polls published by Channels 11, 12, and 13 on Tuesday night; all showed both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc seeking to replace him falling short of a 61-seat Knesset majority.
However, by Wednesday morning, some polls showed Netanyahu's bloc with a clear lead.
Notably, the exit polls have differed from final results in previous elections, and the official results will be determined after ballots are counted.
On Tuesday, the opposition bloc was projected to win 49-51 seats, compared with 51-52 for Netanyahu’s bloc.
On Wednesday morning, the opposition bloc had fallen to 48-19 across all three channels, and Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53-57 mandates.
Channels 13 and 11 exit polls on Tuesday projected a tie at 51 seats each for Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition bloc, while Channel 12 projected Netanyahu's bloc to receive 52 seats.
On Wednesday, Channels 11 and 12 projected Netanyahu's bloc to land 56 seats, and Channel 13 projected 55.
Tuesday polling predicted Likud would win 27 seats, with Yashar projected to win 21-22 seats. Neither side appeared to have a clear path to forming a coalition, though the opposition bloc declared victory shortly after the exit polls were released. These numbers were largely unchanged on Wednesday morning, with Likud projected at 27-28 seats, and Yashar winning 21 mandates across all three polls.
The Joint List and Ra’am were projected to win a record-breaking combined 18-19 seats, potentially making Arab parties pivotal to coalition negotiations. However, opposition leaders have largely ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, barring the Democrats' Yair Golan. This number was reduced slightly on Wednesday morning, with the upper end of the range, 19, remaining the same, and the lower end dropping to 16.
The final voter turnout number came out as 77.7% when polls closed at 10:00 p.m., according to the Central Elections Committee (CEC), up by 7.1% from the 2022 election.
The small right-wing parties hovering near the electoral threshold, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party, were both projected to fall short of the required 3.25% threshold, potentially further complicating efforts by Netanyahu’s bloc to secure a majority.
Opposition leaders declare exit poll results a victory for bloc
Eisenkot and other opposition leaders declared the initial Tuesday exit poll results a victory for their bloc, saying Netanyahu’s camp had been defeated.
The Yashar party leader later gave a speech at the party headquarters in Tel Aviv, saying the country had voted against Netanyahu's government and that holding another election would be a mistake.
Eisenkot also addressed the heads of Israel’s security establishment, urging them not to allow Netanyahu to use national security for political gain. He warned against the prime minister issuing a potential attack due to the election results.
“The prime minister is now a caretaker prime minister. Stand firm against any attempt to challenge you. You have my clear backing,” Eisenkot said.
“Netanyahu, do not dare use security for political purposes,” he added.
Earlier, following the release of the initial exit poll results, Eisenkot said they indicated “a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and his October 7 government among the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens.”
“If these are the final results, they represent a victory for Israel’s national-minded, Zionist majority,” he added.
“I will act immediately to implement the people’s decision, replace the Netanyahu government, and establish a Zionist government committed to military conscription as soon as possible,” Eisenkot said.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid also declared Netanyahu’s bloc defeated.
“Don’t let anyone confuse you: The Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home,” he stated.
Democrats party chairman Yair Golan said the results presented an opportunity to establish a new government.
“The public has spoken. It has fired the Netanyahu government. We have been given a historic opportunity to establish a genuine government of change in Israel, and we have no intention of giving it up,” Golan said.
“We are ready to work with all our partners, bridge the gaps, and take responsibility,” he added.
Politicians in Netanyahu's bloc urged him to wait until later results were given. Ben-Gvir warned against a unity government with Eisenkot, calling it "a terrible mistake."
If Eisenkot were to become prime minister, he would oust Netanyahu, whose right-wing government was in power during the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks and went on to serve its full term. Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having held the office for more than 19 years in total.
Following the October 7 massacre and the ensuing war, the opposition bloc has called for Netanyahu to be held accountable for the attacks, arguing that he should no longer serve as prime minister and calling for a state commission of inquiry to be established.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.