United States President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran should come to the table and make a deal on Wednesday, adding that a “massive armada” of US ships was heading to Iran in reference to the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which has been sailing towards waters off Iran over the last week and a half.
Trump’s shifting tone on Iran is part of the administration’s approach. Trump is now warning that a new conflict with Iran will be worse than the 12-day war in the summer of 2025.
During that war, the Trump administration acted as a kind of “closer,” coming in at the end of Israeli strikes on Iran with further airstrikes before reaching a ceasefire deal.
Iran's nuclear and weapons capabilities were struck a blow, but reports say it still has plenty of drones and ballistic missiles, and also continues to have a damaged nuclear program.
The challenge for the Trump administration is trying to figure out the best path forward.
Reports have suggested they might try everything from a naval blockade to a strike at Iran’s Supreme Leader. There are a lot of factors in play as well.
Iran has been pumping out propaganda about how it might respond, suggesting strikes on the US carrier and strikes in the region. It has also suggested mobilizing proxies in Iraq and the region to attack US forces or Israel.
The threats to Israel and potential threats to the Gulf have also led the US to want to have the carrier in the region. US partners in the Gulf don’t want to have their airspace or US bases there used for the strikes, because they fear retaliation. The presence of the carrier gives plausible deniability.
What is the overall arc of how we got here?
'Maximum pressure' campaign on Iran
Trump came into office in his first term seeking to undo the Iran deal of 2015. Key members of the first Trump administration, such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, were hawks on dealing with Iran. Trump walked away from the Iran deal and placed sanctions on Iran. This was part of a “maximum pressure” campaign.
In response, Iran began to attack ships off the coast of the UAE in 2019. Iran then also attacked two other ships and began trying to hijack ships. Iran mobilized its proxies in Iraq to attack US forces in 2019.
In 2020, the US responded by killing Iran's IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad. However, Trump stepped back from other confrontations. When Iran shot down a $200 million US Global Hawk drone, Trump decided against strikes on the Iranian mainland.
When Trump returned to office in 2025, his new team had more skeptics about US involvement in wars abroad. This isn’t because the administration is full of isolationists, but there are more people on the team who appear to want to channel Trump’s agenda.
This means Trump often seemed out of tune with some in his first administration. This is clear from the fact that many came in for critique when jobs were being given out for the second term. In essence, Bolton and Pompeo do not seem close to Trump’s worldview today.
The new team is cautious and asks questions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked this week about what might happen in Iran if the leadership of the regime fell from power.
"I don't think anyone can give you a simple answer to what happens next in Iran if the Supreme Leader and the regime were to fall," Rubio said. The US is therefore well aware of the complexity of changing Iran's regime. Trump is also skeptical of getting involved in open-ended conflicts.
Trump warned US is 'locked and loaded'
The Trump administration ratcheted up tensions after protests broke out in the country in late December. Trump called on Iran not to kill protesters in early January, and said the US was “locked and loaded.” However, those warnings on January 2 came and went.
It is now believed that Iran killed thousands of protesters between January 7 and 9. Trump again posted about Iran in the middle of January, suggesting that the US would help the protesters. He also indicated Iran would not hang protesters. By this time, it seems Iran had already massacred thousands. Many wondered whether the US would keep its promises.
Iran’s regime had spent most of January not responding to US threats. It was focused internally. However, it now seems Tehran is preparing to respond. It feels like the pressure is building. It is trying to put on a tough face, showing that it is ready for a conflict with the US, and possibly with the wider region.
Iran appears to have conducted limited outreach to Turkey and some other countries, possibly hoping to head off a war. However, Iran’s other friends in Moscow and Beijing don’t seem to be doing much. Russia seems to be monitoring what might come next.
Trump prefers actions that have clear results. He wants answers from his team. If the US acts, "what will it accomplish?" is the kind of question Trump will ask. He prefers decisive action, such as the raid on Maduro in Venezuela. He doesn’t want boots on the ground. He is also likely hearing from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others about what they think about any kind of action on Iran. As such, Trump must weigh the consequences if the US acts.