Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bullish outlook on gold this week, maintaining its forecast of $3,700 per troy ounce by end-2025, rising to $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by what the firm describes as structurally strong central bank purchases combined with sustained inflows into gold ETFs, especially after anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Central Banks Leading the Charge
According to Goldman research, global central banks are expected to continue accumulating approximately 80 tonnes of gold per month through 2025, up from earlier projections of 70 tonnes, indicating a robust and ongoing shift away from traditional reserve assets.
Goldman analysts, including Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, emphasize that gold ETF demand is poised to accelerate as the Federal Reserve signals interest rate reductions. In the event of a recession, gold could spike even further, with a potential year-end price of $3,880.
Spot gold currently trades near $3,380–3,390 per ounce, modestly down from records above $3,380 as investors await the Fed’s decision and monitor rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Analyst Insights
UBS aligns with Goldman’s bullish outlook, predicting $3,500 by end-2025, citing unprecedented central bank acquisition. Bank of America echoes the $4,000 gold forecast, driven by dollar weakness and fiscal volatility markets.
At Goldman, co-head of commodities Daan Struyven argues gold offers a more effective hedge against equity risk than Bitcoin, especially as ETF and official reserve demand grows. Macro strategist Vickie Chang cautions that disruptions in asset correlations, “Sell America” dynamics support gold as a key portfolio hedge toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026.
Strategic Implications
Goldman’s repeated upward revisions, $3,100 in February, $3,300 in March, and $3,700 now, underscore growing confidence in the gold bull case. The bank views gold as particularly attractive due to its limited supply, low correlation to traditional assets, and central bank-driven demand.
Goldman Sachs is doubling down on gold, citing a convergence of macro drivers including aggressive central bank accumulation, ETF inflows ahead of rate cuts, and geopolitical risks, that may lift prices to $3,700 by year-end 2025, with a path to $4,000 by mid-2026. The firm continues to recommend a “long gold” trade, anticipating further upside with limited downside.
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