Mojtaba Khamenei, the second-eldest son of former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, is reportedly set to succeed his slain father as Iran’s next supreme leader, as the Islamic Republic moves to preserve continuity while battling Israel and the United States.
He has long been considered his father’s chosen heir apparent. He is reported to have formed close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and is thought to have gained increasing control over the regime’s decision-making in recent years, while operating in the shadows.
According to reports in Reuters, The New York Times, and Iranian opposition media, Mojtaba Khamenei received the IRGC’s backing in meetings of the Assembly of Experts on Tuesday, which appears poised to approve his accession. The building in Qom that housed the Assembly of Experts was reduced to rubble by the IAF on Tuesday.
While the results of the strike were not immediately clear, Iran’s IRGC-linked Fars News Agency said the building had been evacuated in advance due to the threat of attack, and that the leadership selection was conducted virtually and had entered its final stages.
The result would be announced soon, Fars reported. But the succession may not be as swift or as seamless as the regime would hope.
'The day after' Khamenei
As The Jerusalem Post's military correspondent Yonah Jeremy Bob wrote earlier this week, several key officials within the Islamic regime are also vying for control of Iran “the day after” Khamenei.
Ali Larijani, who reportedly became Khamenei’s de facto deputy following the 12 Day War last June, has been running the country’s day-to-day security affairs and overseeing the regime’s failed nuclear negotiations with the US.
The scales of power in Tehran now rest on a delicate balance among politicians, IRGC officers, and the clerical establishment. But the IRGC plays a central role in running the regime’s security and military apparatus, and its backing could be decisive.
Mojtaba Khamenei should not be underestimated. Described as a hardline cleric, he does not tend to make public appearances and has largely operated behind the scenes. According to various reports, his close ties to the security establishment in Iran have allowed him to gain leverage over rivals and position himself as an authority figure capable of shaping decision-making – one capable of taking control of the nation at a time of crisis.
As explained by Post news editor Alex Winston, his alleged behind-the-scenes role in orchestrating the suppression of demonstrators during the 2009 unrest that followed a disputed presidential election, and his lack of sufficient clerical credentials, are two of the reasons why his potential elevation has long been controversial within Iran.
Islamic regime's delusions of survival
If the reports are accurate, and Mojtaba Khamenei’s accession is all but sealed, the illusion that the Islamic regime can survive – even stripped of nuclear or ballistic-missile capabilities – should finally collapse.
With this reported choice, the regime is proving what Israel has long known: It has no intention of ever abandoning its destructive doctrine: Death to America, and death to Israel.
Nor is this solely Israel’s and the US’s concern. As it demonstrated by firing hundreds of missiles at multiple Gulf states since Saturday, the Iranian regime does not care what stands in its way.
A regime that continues to arm proxies, destabilize Gulf capitals, and threaten Israeli and Western forces will not suddenly moderate under a younger Khamenei. If anything, he may lean even more heavily on hard power and suppressing dissent to consolidate legitimacy.
This regime – led by one Khamenei or another – cannot be allowed to continue to threaten Israel, the entire Middle East, and the Western world.
Both US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have called on the Iranian people to reclaim their country when the war concludes. Heavy strikes across Iran are beginning to make that possibility real. The next phase of the war will test America’s and Israel’s resolve to see it through.
Any off-ramp taken will only serve to keep the regime intact, allow it to regroup, and rebuild. The oppression of the Iranian people under Islamic rule would continue.
Therefore, Israel and the United States must go all the way: The war cannot truly end until the regime does.