While Somaliland is feeling the pressures closing in, America still hasn’t made up its mind, as the fate of Syrian Kurds may hint at what is coming.
All eyes are on Iran.
Yet, around the corner awaits one small but strategic region that has seen temperatures rising since last December – the crucial trade route of the Red Sea.
It is estimated that 15% of global trade goes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as travel time is significantly shorter and cheaper than other alternatives.
As the leading world powers focused on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the rivaling India-Middle East Corridor (IMEC), the region’s emerging power, Turkey, is eyeing possible dominance in the Red Sea area.
Fighting off rivals from within, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made himself available to become THE host of the Muslim Brotherhood and a close ally of Qatar. Turkey’s defense industry saw a steep climb in investments coming from Doha, allowing Erdogan to further develop and grow the Navy and Turkey’s UAV industry.
As part of President Donald Trump’s ever-growing affection for Qatar (assuring its security) and the ongoing heartfelt compliments to Erdogan (“A tough guy,” “A very smart guy,” “A highly respected man”), Turkey has been taking a few bold steps, counting on the US to look the other way.
This includes: (1) approving, securing, and supporting Ahmed Sharaa’s barbaric attack against the Kurdish minority in Northern Syria. Those territories were considered, until recently, a US interest secured by its local allies against ISIS – the Syrian Democratic Forces.
These moves are directly in line with Erdogan’s plan for an economic/energy corridor across Syria with outlets to the Mediterranean in Latakia and, more importantly, in Turkish ports.
(2) Placing an advanced radar system in Damascus International Airport – Erdogan’s next moves says, “Make no mistake, we’re here to stay,” possibly limiting Israeli air operations near and around Syrian airspace.
(3) Increased military presence in Somalia – Erdogan, determined by the lack of response from regional and global powers, has made his next step into the Red Sea.
While maintaining years of naval presence in Somalia, Turkey has now deployed three initial F-16 fighters to Mogadishu International Airport, possibly sending early signs of a military campaign in the area.
What has changed?
The ongoing decline of Iran as a major regional power has turned into a perfect storm for Erdogan’s imperial aspirations.
The new “Sultan” can now position himself as the savior of the Sunni world, as Tehran fires indiscriminately at Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman.
While losing most of its proxy capabilities to Israel’s campaign, Iran is also on the brink of losing its final weapons for deterrence – the multi-billion-dollar ballistic missile program and the ever-growing threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia – which do not consider Turkey much of a friend due to its celebrated bond with the Muslim Brotherhood – have both watched those developments closely.
They have read the signs and got the message: there’s a new Sheriff in town – a Sultan, a Sunni – accepted by the US and with military capabilities far exceeding their own.
Their moves surprised most experts, with Erdogan’s warm welcoming in Cairo occurring only a day after announcing the F-16s in Somalia.
A week later, it was reported that Egypt would send additional troops to Somalia to support its “territorial integrity,” while Saudi Arabia (equipped with US weapons) publicly announced the signing of a military cooperation agreement with Somalia.
We all know what that means.
Little time for hesitation
As Turkey advances facts on the ground, parallel alliances are being formed throughout the region from India to the Horn of Africa.
The UAE has been fostering relations with Somaliland for the better part of a decade, and Ethiopia has advanced relations with Somaliland through the signing of the 2024 MoU – which includes the use of Somaliland ports for Ethiopia’s navy and the $3 billion UAE-financed Berbera port corridor to Ethiopia.
Israel, which maintains close relations with both the UAE and Ethiopia, was the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence in December 2025, possibly serving as a catalyst for the urgency in Ankara-Cairo-Riyadh’s recent moves.
Two major question marks remain at this point.
The obvious one: Will the US recognize Somaliland’s sovereignty and abandon its current “One Somalia” policy?
Such a move is expected to disrupt the current risk assessment played out by the Erdogan-led coalition. Somaliland has been vocal about offering America full access to its ports for military use and to its rich mineral reserves.
As time goes by, this move is becoming more and more unlikely, and the other side understands this well.
The second question: Would India join? As India increases its global footprint as a rival to Chinese expansionism, it is likely to see a move toward recognizing Somaliland, following the US.
Both the UAE and Israel maintain close ties with India, while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has recently chosen to sign a defense treaty with India’s number-one rival – Pakistan.
The Red Sea trade route, including its dependence on a stabilized Horn of Africa, is of utmost importance for New Delhi.
With India’s India Middle East Corridor in sight, the possible asset-grabbing of the Turks in Syria, and Saudi Arabia “jumping the fence,” India will have to become more proactive in securing its interests in the region as part of a wider perspective on global trade.
Will Sen. Ted Cruz’s advocacy and Rep. Scott Perry’s proposed bill cut it?
All eyes are on Iran, as US carriers maintain a short distance from the Iran and Somaliland coasts, perhaps so that as smoke rises up from Tehran, Ankara won’t invite itself to the neighborhood barbecue.
Months or even weeks will tell.
The writer is the CEO and co-founder of Hetz for Israel and is an expert on national security and on forming global partnerships. His work with governments and security agencies resulted in policy as well as counterterrorism outcomes across Europe, the Middle East, and North America.