In geopolitics, a single month can feel like an eternity. What we are witnessing now can only be described as a dramatic, almost unimaginable reversal in Israel’s regional standing.
Just a month ago, Israel appeared to be under diplomatic siege. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu coined the “super-Sparta” doctrine, while much of the world seemed to turn against Jerusalem. European leaders expressed outrage, parts of the US administration voiced unease, and even key Gulf states joined the chorus of condemnation. Israel stood isolated, attacked, accused, and alone.
Yet today, the situation has flipped completely. Because of a strike that ostensibly “failed” but, in fact, embodied strategic audacity, the US and Israel achieved the unthinkable: They managed to isolate Hamas entirely and reach a hostage-release deal under entirely new terms. This article explains how a deeply complex international problem was solved and makes one point unmistakably clear: None of it was accidental.
The notion that this outcome was the result of “blind luck” is fundamentally mistaken. What unfolded was a meticulously orchestrated chess game, multidimensional in design, beginning with a single, precise Israeli strike that set in motion a sequence of moves leading, almost magically, to the current result.
The Mideast’s double game
Who conceived the idea? We may never know for sure. Perhaps it was Jared Kushner, operating quietly behind the scenes; perhaps it was a joint initiative between Netanyahu and Trump; or possibly a hybrid effort combining the instincts of both Kushner and Ron Dermer.
One thing, however, is certain: Ron Dermer, Israel’s strategic affairs minister and a close confidant of Kushner, was among the central architects behind the scenes.
For months, he led quiet, almost surgical diplomatic talks with the Americans, Saudis, and Emiratis, an intense, painstaking effort that helped shape the framework of the new arrangement. Many within Israel’s diplomatic establishment credit him for his persistence, strategic grasp, and ability to weave disparate threads into a single coherent plan.
The maneuver's brilliance
To grasp the brilliance of the maneuver, one must take a step back. The regional board was crowded with players engaged in a double game. Saudi Arabia, for instance, walked a fine and dangerous line: aligning with Israel against shared adversaries – Iran, Qatar, Turkey, and the Muslim Brotherhood – while simultaneously insisting on the establishment of a “Palestinian state,” effectively providing ideological oxygen to Hamas, the living embodiment of the Brotherhood’s movement.
Then came the critical misstep. When the Saudis chose to side with French President Emmanuel Macron and support his initiative to bypass Washington, positioning Europe as mediator, they received what can only be described as a “diplomatic slap in the face.” As they pulled back, the Qataris and Turks moved swiftly into the vacuum and replaced them. The Saudis suddenly found themselves off the board, stripped of meaningful influence.
Macron himself was motivated by narrow political considerations. He advanced a plan that, intentionally or not, benefited Hamas, without even rhetorically conditioning recognition of a Palestinian state on the release of Israeli hostages. In doing so, he exposed his true objective: a desperate bid to return Europe to the center of the diplomatic stage, even at the expense of Israel’s security.
The Mideast as a chessboard
Meanwhile, Riyadh began to grasp the magnitude of its miscalculation. Fearing the growing Turkey-Qatar axis and the erosion of its regional clout, Saudi Arabia started signaling a willingness to return to the table, not necessarily in name but unmistakably in spirit, with a renewed openness reminiscent of the Abraham Accords. The goal: to reassert its strategic position against the tightening Islamist bloc.
The strike in Doha upended the game. It forced every double-playing actor to choose a side. It exposed Qatar’s facade of neutrality, put it on the defensive, and made it clear to the Saudis that one cannot have it both ways. It derailed Macron’s initiative, neutralized Qatar’s maneuvering, and restored a regional order in which the US and Israel once again set the rules.
If the 20th century was a game of checkers – fast, flat, and predictable – the 21st century is chess. Every move is calculated several steps ahead, and a single mistake can topple kings. The Israeli strike in Doha was not merely a show of force; it was a game-changing move, a strategic gambit that redefined the region’s rules. Israel did not strike Doha to eliminate Hamas leaders but to rewrite the Middle East’s playbook.
Liron Rose is a major (res.) in the IDF Intelligence Directorate, a tech entrepreneur and investor, creator and host of the podcast HaYanshuf (The Owl), author of Entrepreneurship and Investments at Eye Level, and a competitive chess player.
Amit Shavi is a former analyst in Unit 8200, an investment professional, author of several finance books, and a chess player.