Palestinian leadership post-Gaza war: Who are the prospective leaders of the future? - opinion

“9. Gaza will be governed under a temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for day-to-day services and municipalities.

“This committee will include qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight by a new international ‘Board of Peace,’ chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members – including former UK prime minister Tony Blair – to be announced.

“10. This ‘Board of Peace’ will set the framework, handle funding, and supervise Gaza’s redevelopment until the Palestinian Authority completes its reform program and can safely assume control.”

In short, no matter how hostilities end, the Board of Peace will be seeking suitable Palestinian candidates to fill the “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” that will provide Gaza with its temporary transitional governance.

At the same time, suitable Palestinians will be required to head the reformed Palestinian Authority and eventually “assume control.” A successor to its president, 89-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, could possibly be installed, or at least announced.

Who are these prospective Palestinian leaders of the future, untainted by Hamas, or other jihadist philosophies, or by a rejectionist past?

His credibility is boosted by the fact that he is a native Gazan, born in 1961 in the Khan Yunis refugee camp. As a teenager, Dahlan helped set up the Fatah Youth Movement, known as the Fatah Hawks.

In his twenties, he was arrested more than once by the Israeli authorities for political activism, but never for terrorist activities. He put his time in Israeli prisons to good use by learning Hebrew, which he speaks fluently.

In the early 1990s, Dahlan was reliably reported to have helped in the negotiations leading to the Oslo Accords. The first Accord, signed in 1993, was violently opposed by Hamas, which severed relations with Yasser Arafat as a result.

Arafat chose Dahlan to head the Preventive Security Force in Gaza. Israel and the US supported and closely cooperated with him in his new role, particularly in countering Hamas. Building up a force of 20,000 men, he became so powerful that the Strip was nicknamed “Dahlanistan.”

In 2001, Dahlan began denouncing corruption in the PA, calling for reform. The 2006 Palestinian elections saw Hamas gain a majority in Gaza. Dahlan called their election victory a disaster, and denounced Hamas as “a bunch of murderers and thieves.”

Six months later, Hamas staged a bloody coup in Gaza, seized power, and expelled those Fatah officials it had not murdered. Years later, it was revealed that Dahlan played a key role in an abortive US plot to remove Hamas from power.

In October 2007, the Bush administration reportedly pressured Abbas to appoint Dahlan as his deputy. Ever since, Abbas regarded him as a dangerous rival.

In June 2011, he charged Dahlan with financial corruption and murder, even accusing him of killing leader Yasser Arafat. In 2011, Dahlan was expelled from Fatah. French investigators in 2015 concluded that Arafat died of natural causes.

Settling in the UAE, Dahlan became a close adviser to Mohammed bin Zayed, then crown prince, now the UAE president. Though never officially acknowledged, Dahlan is believed to have played a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the normalization of relations between the UAE and Israel, resulting in the Abraham Accords in September 2020.

Significantly, during Blair’s time as special representative of the Quartet for Middle East Peace, Fayyad worked closely with the former UK prime minister on economic development and institution-building in the Palestinian territories.

In particular, they collaborated on the “Fayyad Plan,” a roadmap to statehood. Blair, a member of Trump’s Board of Peace, will no doubt support Fayyad as a candidate for the technocratic committee, which it is to oversee.

Another potential candidate is Mohammad Mustafa, the prominent Palestinian politician and economist appointed PA prime minister in March 2024. Widely viewed as a technocratic reformer, his career has been marked by high-profile international experience and economic leadership, including 15 years at the World Bank Group in Washington, and senior advisory roles for the governments of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Hanan Ashrawi, 79, the veteran PA diplomat, is also a possibility. In December 2020, she resigned from the Executive Committee of the PLO, citing the marginalization of women and young people in Palestinian leadership. Less involved in formal political office than she used to be, she remains very active as a public activist and advocate, pushing for reform and accountability.

Two other possibilities are Hussein al-Sheikh, currently the PLO’s secretary-general, and Majed Faraj, the chief of PA intelligence. Western circles typically regard al-Sheikh as a pragmatic speaker, deeply involved in diplomatic engagement and security coordination.

Faraj is viewed as a leader in Palestinian efforts to counter terrorism and maintain West Bank stability. He regularly collaborates with Israeli and US intelligence, and his agency has thwarted numerous planned attacks against Israel. Although both men have historical connections to Fatah armed activity, they are generally regarded in Western official circles as valuable security and political interlocutors.

With the sole exception of Dahlan, none of these names appears on the list of leaders most favored by the Palestinian public. According to the latest poll, Palestinians overwhelmingly support 66-year-old Marwan Barghouti as their preferred leader.

Arrested by Israel in April 2002 during the Second Intifada, he was convicted in 2004 on five counts of murder and attempted murder, and sentenced to five life sentences plus an additional 40 years. He will not be included in the return of some 2000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees under the Trump ceasefire arrangements.

The Trump plan need not fail for lack of Palestinian leaders. There is also the Palestinian diaspora to scour for possible figures able and, hopefully, willing to play their part in rebuilding Gaza and constructing a hopeful future for the whole region. The political will to get started is all that is needed.