Five years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, US President Donald Trump’s return to office has reinvigorated his Nobel Prize-worthy diplomatic achievement. Far from being merely a Middle Eastern peace initiative, the Accords represent the cornerstone of Trump’s “America First” geopolitical strategy – a framework designed to establish American primacy in the region through economic partnerships and security cooperation between the United States, Israel, and West-friendly Gulf states.
The October 7 Hamas attacks and subsequent regional upheaval provided an unexpected stress test for the normalization agreements. Rather than crumbling under pressure, the Accords demonstrated remarkable resilience. While initial reactions from Abraham Accords signatories included condemnations and critical statements, no country withdrew from the agreements. More significantly, when Iran launched massive missile and drone assaults against Israel in April and October 2024, Arab partners quietly but effectively supported Israeli defense efforts.
The UAE shared critical intelligence on missile trajectories, Bahrain coordinated naval interceptions, Morocco provided satellite imagery, and even non-signatory Saudi Arabia shared radar data and intercepted projectiles. This operational cooperation transformed the Abraham Accords from a diplomatic framework into what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aptly termed the “Abraham Security Alliance” during his July 2024 address to the US Senate.
Trump’s recent diplomatic trek across the Gulf – visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in May 2025 – signals his administration’s commitment to expanding this strategic platform. During his Riyadh meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Trump explicitly urged Saudi participation, calling it “a tremendous tribute” that would usher in a regional “golden age.” The president’s optimism reflects not wishful thinking but calculated geopolitical positioning.
The economic dimensions of Trump’s Middle East strategy align neatly with the crown prince’s Vision 2030 modernization program. The historic Qatar Airways deal for 210 Boeing aircraft, worth $96 billion, exemplifies how Trump’s engagement with the Gulf has facilitated massive American commercial penetration, though Qatar, the center of the global Muslim Brotherhood, is unlikely to join future accords with Israel.
Similarly, Trump’s UAE agreements on AI data centers and technology partnerships demonstrate how normalization creates lucrative opportunities for American industry while advancing regional development.
This economic integration serves broader strategic purposes. China’s Belt and Road Initiative directly competes with the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor project connecting India, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Beijing’s commercial inroads – from Israel’s Haifa Port to infrastructure projects across the region – represent a fundamental challenge to American influence.
Trump’s expanded Abraham Accords create an alternative framework that binds regional partners to American economic and technological systems rather than Chinese alternatives.
Iran's proxy warfare campaign inadvertently strengthened the Abraham Accords’ solidarity. Houthi attacks on Saudi and UAE infrastructure, from the 2019 Abqaiq oil facility strikes to the recent 2025 assaults on Riyadh’s outskirts and Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, underscore shared Iranian threats. These attacks killed civilians, disrupted commerce, and demonstrated Tehran’s regional destabilization strategy.
The coordinated Arab-Israeli defense cooperation against Iranian missile barrages represents unprecedented Middle Eastern security integration. Trump and his international cabinet recognize Israel’s key role in American foreign policy in the Middle East as a defense, technology, and regional security anchor. That explains Trump’s urgency in encouraging Israel to defeat Hamas, which has been a primary obstacle to regional stabilization.
Trump’s strategic vision extends beyond current signatories. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s diplomatic outreach to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Azerbaijan, and Armenia signals an ambitious regional expansion of influence. Lebanon’s potential participation, following Hezbollah’s degradation, could reshape the Levant. Azerbaijan’s inclusion would extend the framework into Central Asia, creating a transcontinental alliance anchored by American partnerships.
However, significant challenges persist. Turkey and Qatar – both seeking greater regional influence – maintain complex relationships with the expanding Abraham framework. Qatar has hosted Hamas leadership and has given it material support while simultaneously housing America’s largest Middle Eastern military base.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan balances NATO membership with increasingly independent regional policies, including an eye to influencing Syria’s new leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa, who, despite his extremist background, presents uncertain opportunities for normalization.
The Abraham Accords’ durability during the Gaza war validates Trump’s original assessment: Economic incentives and security cooperation create stronger bonds than traditional diplomatic protocols. Arab partners prioritized long-term strategic interests over short-term popular pressures, demonstrating sophisticated cost-benefit calculations rather than populist sentiments influenced by propaganda.
The Abraham Accords represent far more than Middle East diplomacy
From Washington’s perspective, the Abraham Accords represent far more than Middle Eastern diplomacy. They constitute a geopolitical platform for American primacy during intensifying great power competition. As BRICS nations increasingly align against Western interests and as China expands its Middle Eastern footprint, the Accords provide America with economically integrated, security-coordinated regional partners.
Trump’s second-term push for broader Abraham Accords participation reflects his administration’s recognition that regional stability serves American global strategy. Each new signatory strengthens America’s position against Chinese economic penetration and Iranian proxy warfare while creating commercial opportunities for American businesses.
The Abraham Accords have evolved from a US-brokered and Saudi-sanctioned diplomatic breakthrough mediating normalization agreements with key Arab states into a strategic alliance system. As Trump pursues expansion across the Middle East and beyond, the framework’s success will ultimately be measured not by peace processes but by America’s ability to maintain regional primacy in an increasingly competitive international order.
Five years later, the accords remain Trump’s signature foreign policy achievement and his administration’s blueprint for American leadership in the Middle East.
The writer is president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.