President Donald J. Trump stands in the eye of the Middle East’s perfect storm—with the rare power not just to calm it, but to transform it forever. Like a boardroom tycoon suddenly holding every blue-chip in the region, he commands more leverage in the Middle East than any US leader since Eisenhower.
Iran’s theocracy has been rocked, Gaza lies in ruins, Syria teeters toward fragmentation, and the once-buzzing Abraham Accords are idling in neutral. If Trump moves with the audacity and strategic recklessness that built his empire—and defined much of his first term—he could recast the regional order and his legacy with one sweeping deal.
The starting point is Iran. After the recent US B-2 strikes, Tehran’s nuclear program has been significantly degraded. While the exact scope of the damage remains uncertain, early assessments suggest the program may have been set back by at least two years. While the operation itself was brilliant, this is no time for triumphalism. Iran’s threat is hydra-headed: nuclear ambition, proxy warfare, and digital destabilization.
Reza Pahlavi’s democratic vision remains the most viable path forward, but it cannot gain traction without outside support. A discreet, tactical American commitment to Iran’s opposition—providing secure communications tools, inconspicuously teeing up international recognition of Pahlavi’s transitional government, and a roadmap for post-regime sanctions relief and transformative economic investment—could be the difference between collapse and rebirth.
The regime is vulnerable. Its economy is in tatters, its defenses increasingly penetrable, and its population more openly defiant than at any time since the Islamic Republic’s founding.
This is where the grand bargain comes in
Israel has already received operational B-2 support from the US—a historic first. But the true opportunity lies ahead: a new strategic framework in which Israel gains expanded US backing—possibly even access to its own B-2 procurement pathway or greenlighted operational latitude—to take the Iran file to its logical conclusion, in direct but imperceptible partnership with the US, but that next phase should be conditioned on bold reciprocal commitments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: end the war in Gaza, broker a deal with Hamas to secure the release of every hostage, and make a credible gesture—symbolic but unmistakable—toward eventual Palestinian statehood.
When it comes to Palestinian statehood, it doesn’t need to be a blueprint or a binding timeline—just enough to signal that the door remains open. That alone could give America’s Arab allies the political cover they need to rejoin the regional normalization process.
Enter Gaza—not in need of hand-wringing or a return to the battered status quo, but of a total reset, powered by the world’s most accomplished state-builders. Trump can marshal Abu Dhabi’s and Riyadh’s sovereign-wealth giants—think the minds behind Masdar City and King Abdullah Economic City—to pour billions into hard infrastructure: a deep-water port at al-Sudaniya, a desalination plant to end the water crisis, a modern power grid, and an industrial free zone that turns smugglers into entrepreneurs. Washington supplies the diplomatic umbrella, the Gulf bankrolls the build-out, and Israel—working with the World Bank—keeps every contract honest. Lay that concrete first, and new schools, clinics, and apartments will follow.
Leadership is the hinge on which the Palestinian file swings—and for the Palestinian people, a generational pivot point may be at hand. As momentum builds across the region for some form of state recognition, an opening emerges not for recycled slogans of resistance but for a new cadre of pragmatic Palestinian leaders who speak the language of governance, growth, and global dignity.
This is a moment for bold Palestinian leaders to step forward, ready to exchange grievance politics for nation-building, and martyrdom for meritocracy.
If such leadership takes root—and is met with even modest but credible gestures from Israel—it could shift the calculus across the Arab world. With Gaza stabilized and the Palestinian issue removed from Iran’s propaganda toolkit, Trump could reignite the Abraham Accords—or support the emergence of a similar regional framework should some partners prefer new branding. Saudi Arabia is already close, but what they need is a symbolic nudge—precisely the kind of gesture Netanyahu could be incentivized to make through a larger strategic package.
Looking towards Syria and Lebanon
Syria, fractured and fatigued, is no longer a proxy battleground—it’s a sovereign state struggling to stitch itself back together. The recent Druze unrest in Suwayda underscored just how brittle the current order remains: a country suspended between past ruin and future uncertainty. President Ahmed al-Sharaa, though no Jeffersonian reformer, appears willing to chart a new course.
With the right mix of reconstruction incentives, regional legitimacy, and continued distancing from Iran, Syria could re-enter the Arab fold not as a pariah, but as a partner. This, too, is part of Trump’s larger calculus. Renewing the dormant Syrian-Israeli backchannel—even cautiously—could further embed Damascus in a new regional architecture built not on resistance, but on reinvention.
Lebanon, too, could be part of this expanded vision. Once known as the Paris of the Middle East, Beirut is a stunning but stifled city, held back by economic collapse and Hezbollah’s stranglehold. As part of Trump’s grand bargain, Lebanese President Michel Aoun could be offered a clear path: take decisive steps to weaken and marginalize Hezbollah’s influence in exchange for a sweeping international recovery package.
Backed by the US, Gulf partners, and multilateral institutions, this package would aim to restore Lebanon’s banking sector, rebuild its infrastructure, and unlock a new era of growth and stability. With the right alignment, Lebanon could take its place as a proud participant in an expanded Abraham Accords framework, reclaiming its role as a cultural, commercial, and democratic hub in the region.
This broader framework shouldn’t stop at the Middle East. Select African nations—already within the orbit of US influence—could become meaningful additions to the regional integration architecture, making the Abraham Accords both fuller and broader in scope.
Somalia, which has shown interest in closer ties with Israel, could be brought in through expanded US security guarantees and stabilization aid. Djibouti, a strategic Red Sea gateway with a longstanding US military presence, might join in exchange for infrastructure investment and long-term defense assurances. Mauritania, which once held diplomatic ties with Israel, could reenter the fold through targeted American support for education, water access, and renewable energy. Incorporating these nations would widen the circle of peace, blunt Iranian influence, and embed the Accords in a broader Afro-Arab future.
But even as the circle expands outward, its center of gravity remains unchanged: the unresolved Palestinian question. Once again thrust onto the global agenda, it could serve not as a roadblock but as a rallying point for a more inclusive regional vision.
Calls for state recognition, long dismissed as diplomatic theater, now carry real weight, driven by a rare alignment among international stakeholders, despite the hesitation or hostility of parts of Israel’s current leadership. In a moment that feels like collapse, there is a chance for recalibration. If approached with seriousness and imagination, the US could help convert long-standing paralysis into forward motion—and finally, make the Middle East great again.
When the dust settles
And when the dust settles, imagine the moment: flags of Israel, the United States, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritania, and Palestine fluttering across the South Lawn of the White House. Leaders once locked in bitter enmity gathered to sign a framework for a new era—one shaped not by war, but by trade, shared security, and hard-nosed diplomacy. It would be the crowning moment not only of Trump’s presidency, but of American statecraft in the 21st century.
Isaiah Berlin once observed that history rarely offers second chances to those bold enough to seize them. Trump’s instincts have always been larger-than-life, transactional, theatrical, and unapologetically maximalist. But this moment demands more than dealmaking; it demands vision. The chance to reimagine an entire region, to trade firepower for a new architecture of peace, and to shape a future that outlasts any one presidency.
Few leaders ever hold that kind of power. Even fewer know how to use it. If he succeeds, he won’t just be the dealmaker-in-chief. He’ll be the architect of a new Middle East—and the Nobel Peace Prize would not just be deserved, it would be inevitable.
Coby Schoffman is a Los Angeles–based serial social entrepreneur and the founder of The Nation Foundation (TNF), which operates project zones across East Africa. Nir Boms is a Research Fellow at the Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University.