Israel’s strategic position in terms of deterrence and national security has arguably never been stronger. Over the past year, the operational prowess of the Israeli military and intelligence services has helped reverse the collapse of national confidence that followed Hamas’s October 7, 2023 massacre.
The impact on Iran’s proxies, the successful interception of two large-scale missile assaults, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and the so-called 12-day war with Iran have all potentially reshaped the regional security landscape in Israel’s favor. However, these gains must not blind us to the profound challenges that still lie ahead.
In stark contrast, Israel’s diplomatic standing, both regionally and internationally, has reached a new low. The dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza, the chronic lack of food supplies, reports of civilians being shot at distribution centers, and the widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure have all severely tarnished Israel’s image.
This is true despite Hamas’s responsibility for instigating this war and its continued inhumane captivity of 50 Israeli hostages for more than 630 days. Incidents in the West Bank, including settler violence against Palestinian villagers and even IDF soldiers, have further eroded Israel’s moral and political credibility abroad.
These developments project the impression that the current government seeks to reoccupy Gaza, force out its population, and advance annexation efforts in the West Bank.
Internally, Israel remains deeply divided. The Netanyahu coalition shows no sign of halting its efforts to undermine judicial independence and weaken the Supreme Court – core elements of Israeli democracy. This internal crisis severely damaged Israel’s deterrence in the eyes of its enemies and was a key factor that led to the October 7 attacks and the ongoing trauma of more than 250 hostages and the deaths of over 1,200 civilians and soldiers.
Now, following what is being hailed as a major victory over Iran, Netanyahu – the self-styled “war hero” – may feel emboldened to persist with the judicial overhaul, particularly as his own trial nears its conclusion.
The situation is further complicated by post-conflict assessments of the Israel-Iran War. The Trump administration has declared that Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed, yet accurate battle damage assessments are still pending.
Even if critical sites like Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz sustained serious damage, conflicting reports persist regarding the status of 408 kg. of uranium enriched to 60%. The White House maintains that there is no evidence the material was removed from Fordow prior to the strike, while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general has suggested it was relocated in several canisters to another site.
A key concern remains the extent of the damage to Iran’s centrifuges, essential to uranium enrichment, and whether Iran retains the capacity to produce more advanced models. If 60% enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges have been concealed at a secret location, as Iran has done before, the nuclear threat may still be very real.
The regime’s military infrastructure was badly compromised, its vulnerability exposed, and its prestige severely damaged – conditions that may only increase Iran’s motivation to acquire nuclear weapons as a deterrent. In short, Israel cannot assume that the Iranian threat has been neutralized.
Israel lacks coherent strategic vision
All of these trends deeply affect Israeli society, which has been torn apart by 21 months of a war with no clear strategic goal and no end in sight. While there have been undeniable military successes since October 7, the lack of a coherent strategic vision is steadily eroding these gains, which can only be preserved through diplomacy.
Preventing Iran from resuming its nuclear program, either openly or covertly, will require a US-Iran agreement that enforces zero enrichment, prohibits nuclear fuel cycle activities and centrifuge production, and imposes full disclosure with intrusive IAEA inspections.
If Iran refuses such terms, France and Britain, supported by Germany and the US, must immediately trigger the snapback of sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 2231. This mechanism, which cannot be vetoed, remains valid until October 18, 2025.
If Israel truly wishes to seize any regional opportunity, it must secure the release of all hostages, both living and dead, and end the war in Gaza. No serious diplomatic breakthrough is possible while hostages remain in horrific captivity and while Israel is seen as pursuing the reoccupation of Gaza and the annexation of the West Bank.
This government must present a serious, credible political plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or step aside for one that can. Extending the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, Syria, and beyond is impossible if Israel maintains control over Gaza and the West Bank.
This critical reality is rejected by the Netanyahu coalition but could be embraced by the Trump administration, which may lend its support. It could be a unique opportunity for our generation, and for our children’s future.
Ultimately, this moment is not only about opportunities but also about confronting ongoing threats. Without a political resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we face a one-state reality marked by perpetual hostility and bloodshed. Such a future would further strain our relationships with Egypt and Jordan – key pillars of our national security – and preclude any progress with Saudi Arabia or Syria.
A new diplomatic accord with Syria, and hopefully Lebanon, could dramatically enhance Israel’s national security, surrounding the country not with an Iranian “ring of fire,” but with a ring of stability and peace.
The writer is a former vice-director general and head of strategic affairs at the Foreign Ministry, and a past ambassador to Germany.