If hostilities turn into renewed fighting, Iran may fire tens or hundreds of missiles per day to “effectively confront the enemy and also change the calculation on the other side,” Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian security issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told the New York Times on Monday.
This NYT report comes after US President Donald Trump told reporters that there was a "very good chance" the United States could reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Earlier on Monday, Trump mentioned in a Truth Social post that leaders of Gulf states had requested that he hold off on striking Iran.
Trump was originally planning to carry out the strikes on Tuesday, he wrote.
In light of this, Azizi explained to the NYT that a future Iran conflict would look different from the recent war, which began at the end of February 2026.
In February, Iran was prepared for a long-lasting war, Azizi told the NYT, adding that the Islamic State rationed its use of missiles in order to hold out for several weeks.
A 'short but high intensity' war with Iran
If war breaks out now, he said, Iranian leaders will aim to be fighting a "short but high intensity" war in which they will need to defend their energy infrastructure from coordinated heavy strikes.
Azizi also said that Iran may target Gulf oil fields, refineries, and ports as a way to damage the global economy and put pressure on the United States. This could also put the Gulf nations in a difficult position, forced to participate in a war that they intended to avoid.
Beyond Hormuz: The Bab al-Mandab Strait
Iran may also try to leverage the Bab al-Mandab Strait the same way it has leveraged control over the Strait of Hormuz, Azizi told the NYT, noting that this would "make the United States focus on two maritime fronts instead of one."
The Bab el-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, is already considered a significant vulnerability. The Houthis, an autonomous proxy of the Islamic regime, carried out a number of attacks from Yemen’s territory in support of Hamas.
Yemen expert Inbal Nissim-Louvton previously told the Post that fears of the Houthis closing or otherwise disrupting the strait have likely led to the Gulf nations electing to absorb Iranian attacks without responding in kind.
What did Trump write in his recent Truth Social post about Iran relations?
In a Monday post on Truth Social, Trump said, "There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I would be very happy."
He added, regarding the possible agreement, “It’s a very positive development, but we’ll see whether it amounts to anything.” Trump also pointed out that there have been prior times when US officials thought a deal was imminent, but he reiterated that this time is "a little bit different."
The leaders mentioned in the post were Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
"Based on my respect for the above-mentioned leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and the United States Military that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow," Trump said.
"Serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond," he wrote.
"This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!" he added.
Trump has "further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached," he added.
James Genn, Shoshana Baker, and Danielle Greyman-Kennard contributed to this report.