As the days progress, the US continues to deploy significant forces to the Middle East. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, along with its strike group, has arrived in the area of responsibility of US Central Command, to provide President Trump with all the capabilities and options ahead of a decision on how to act against Iran.
One of the challenges facing President Trump in deciding how to strike is the fact that protests have significantly diminished after weeks of murders by the regime inside Iran.
This raises a key question: Is there an action that could lead to the fall of the regime even in the absence of public demonstrations? According to reports, President Trump has requested a focused and meaningful operation, an indication that he has no desire to become embroiled in prolonged warfare. And of course: no boots on the ground.
Among the options under consideration is striking Basij facilities and individuals who ordered killings and the brutal suppression of protests.
Some speculate that the president may even consider targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini. But is it possible that the president will choose not to pursue a military option at all?
Strategic choices facing Washington on Iran
The Jerusalem Post reports that the administration is examining the possibility of imposing a naval blockade on Iran that would prevent it from exporting oil. President Trump previously took a similar step against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, and a few weeks later, launched an operation aimed at capturing President Maduro and his wife.
The advantages of such an operation are clear: when the regime cannot be overthrown due to the absence of protests, massive economic pressure may encourage demonstrations and once again destabilize the regime from within.
Perhaps this is not the end of the protest wave. In a few days, thousands of Iranians, possibly many more, will mark the 40th day since the deaths of relatives and friends who were killed during the brutal suppression of the unrest. This day, known as Arbaeen in Shi’ite Islam, has significant symbolic importance.
In the case of Mahsa Amini, who was beaten to death for not wearing her hijab properly, the protests on the 40th day were far more intense. Therefore, demonstrations and unrest may return in the near future.