The Palestinian Authority’s build-up of a military force, in violation of the Oslo Accords, presents an unprecedented threat to millions of people living in central Israel, warned Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch in a newly published report by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
Outlining the scale of risk, Hirsch noted that the West Bank now hosts an armed force 10 times larger than the number of terrorists who invaded Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023 – a force he wrote that was “simply awaiting orders to attack.”
Kalkilya lies just 14 km. from the Mediterranean Sea. Within that narrow corridor are the cities of Kfar Saba, Ra’anana, Hod Hasharon, Herzliya, and countless other communities. As noted by Hirsch, on October 7, terrorists penetrated 22 km. into Israeli territory, reaching Ofakim, making a 14-km. incursion a possibility for which Israel is currently unprepared.
Making the situation of particular concern is the fact that the Palestinian force is now armed with what is understood to be tens of thousands of weapons, has a larger personnel presence than ever agreed to, and possesses the ideological will to seek Israel’s destruction, according to the report.
During the First and Second Intifadas, hundreds of PA security personnel participated in attacks on Israel, the report noted. Since then, PA security forces in the West Bank have grown by 400%, despite the Oslo Accords only permitting the existence of a limited Palestinian Authority Police Force responsible for maintaining local public order and combating terrorist groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The force transformed from a 12,000-person organization – limited to having 4,000 rifles, 4,000 pistols, 120 light and heavy machine guns, and 15 armored vehicles – to an estimated 70,000 “soldiers.” They have received military training, and in their possession are tens of thousands of rifles and pistols, and dozens of armored vehicles.
Though the Oslo Accords permitted the number of weapons to be increased with mutual consent, it is understood that many of those weapons are now being smuggled into the West Bank, or manufactured in the Palestinian territory without Israel’s consent.
PA hides true extent of its forces
Though one could argue that the force evolved with the needs of the growing Palestinian population in the West Bank, the report notes that crime in the West Bank is relatively low, making it hard to justify the excessive force. Data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics reported that the crime rate in the Palestinian Authority-governed areas of the West Bank to be 1,336 criminal offenses per 100,000 residents in 2024.
Additionally, the report noted that it is rare that a civilian police force would have military warfare training, including artillery, sniping, heavy machine guns, and parachuting, which those employed by the PA now enjoy.
Under the Oslo Accords, the PA was required to submit all names of police candidates to Israel, and Israel held veto power over any recruitment.
The PA has long violated and hidden evidence of its force size. According to a US State Department report from November 1995, even before the PA’s full establishment, the force already numbered 18,000 personnel, despite being limited at that stage to only 9,000. In 2001, the force was estimated at around 40,000; by 2014, it had grown to 65,277.
In 2018, the number reached approximately 65,829.20, more than 500% larger than what had been agreed upon.
Ideologically, the report noted that Fatah is not dissimilar from Hamas, pointing to statements from various officials who have bragged that terrorists in Israeli jails are members of the PA security forces.
Despite the ideological similarities to Hamas, PA President Mahmoud Abbas has been able to gain international support by positioning Hamas as an enemy, leading to then-prime minister Ehud Olmert agreeing to the “Wanted Terrorists Agreement.” In exchange for handing over their weapons to the PA and promising to swear-off terror, Fatah terrorists were promised to be removed from Israel’s target list. Instead, the PA integrated the terrorists within its security force.
Hirsch noted that this pattern has continued. For example, amid international pressure, the PA attempted to conceal Pay-for-Slay payments in 2020 by embedding terrorists within its security force. Many Hamas operatives, therefore, received military wages and “created an absurd situation in which the operational mission of thwarting terror and arresting Hamas operatives was entrusted to Fatah activists with rich terrorist backgrounds.”
Outside of receiving training and support from the United States, PA forces have also undergone full military training in countries hostile to Israel, which are also training Hamas. The report noted that in 2024 there was a media exposé that PA forces were being trained in Pakistan in armored warfare, artillery, shoulder-fired missiles, heavy machine guns, sniping, parachuting, and more.
The Regavim organization also highlighted the fact that some of those receiving training in Pakistan, including Ahmed Alawna, had himself taken part in numerous terrorist attacks against Israel.
PA has been gifted weapons by Israeli government
Well-trained for warfare, the Palestinian Authority has also been gifted weapons by numerous Israeli governments, including under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government only weeks before the October 7, 2023, attacks. Despite this, Hirsch noted that there is a degree of secrecy surrounding arming the PA, and official channels have largely avoided responding to freedom-of-information requests about the scale of weapons transferred.
“The most positive interpretation of the failure to provide the information is a mere recording error. The most negative is that the information exists but its disclosure would cause embarrassment to security officials. Notably, at no stage did the responders claim the information was classified; their silence was deafening,” Hirsch wrote.
“As in the past, the terror army built by the PA is destined to turn its weapons against Israeli citizens. Due to the nature, size, and capabilities of this force, a northward, westward, and southward invasion by this terror army will endanger millions of citizens. The scale of destruction and killing within communities inside the ‘Green Line’ could be significantly greater, even in comparison to the horrors of the October 7 massacre,” he warned.
Hirsch recommended immediate action, saying that Israel must halt all approvals of arms being sent to the PA; make aid to the PA conditional on a commitment to reduce PA forces to the agreed upon amount; establish an independent oversight mechanism; close PA military training bases; prepare the IDF for an October 7-like scenario in the West Bank; and issue a diplomatic demand that the US and EU end the financial support they provide for training of PA soldiers.