Will Mahmoud Abbas actually let Palestinians vote? Critics say he's testing the waters first

Behind the scenes, discussions are under way about how lists might be formed, who could run, and what the next parliament might look like.

While some Palestinians see the anticipated vote as an opportunity for renewal and change, others voice doubts about what lies ahead.

Unlike the parliamentary elections, no date has been announced for the presidency; Abbas has only declared it will occur in early 2027.

“Abbas prefers to do it in this order of elections because he fears losing the presidency to his rivals, whether from Fatah or Hamas,” critics said. Holding presidential and legislative elections simultaneously has also long been a demand of Hamas.

Palestinian analyst, intellectual, and human rights activist Omar Rahal explained that Abbas wants to see the outcomes of the parliament vote before moving forward with any presidential race.

“If Abbas’s rivals gain significant support, he may still have time to maneuver and potentially delay a presidential vote,” he said. “But if he goes to a presidential vote first and loses, then there is nothing much he can do to fix or reverse it,” Rahal noted.

Hamas has not officially said whether it will boycott or participate in the elections. Rahal assessed that Hamas would likely avoid public participation, partly because of what he described as the expected Israeli crackdown on its members or supporters through arrests and other restrictions.

He also pointed to Abbas’s recent amendment to the law requiring all candidates to commit to the PLO’s policies and programs, including the Oslo Accords and the recognition of Israel, which Hamas rejects.

Rahal said that this restriction may limit Hamas’s participation, but added that it has also fueled resentment among some in the Palestinian public in the West Bank, since the organization is considered part of the social and political fabric.

One scenario that he and other Palestinian observers pointed to was that while Hamas may not officially field its members, it may take part by supporting favored candidates running as independents.

Another key issue is whether prominent figures from the Fatah movement, which is headed by Abbas, will form separate lists, a move that could fuel tensions.

Rahal explained that while official Fatah members are barred from running on separate lists rather than the official one led by Abbas, Abbas cannot prevent former Fatah figures or individuals affiliated with the movement from running independently.

“Even if Dahlan does not run himself, his supporters are expected to put forward a list,” Rahal said, noting that the same applies to Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader who has been serving five life sentences in Israeli prison for his role in terrorist attacks against Israelis in the Second Intifada.

“Barghouti’s affiliates could also run or form a list, though he himself is more associated with future presidential elections than with the legislative vote,” Rahal added.

Rahal assessed that Fatah members and affiliates, including independents such as academics, are likely to form the largest bloc in the new parliament.

He added that “people in general are encouraged by the announced vote, hoping for greater representation for various sections and groups.”

However, some doubt whether the vote will actually take place, claiming that “if Abbas believes that the vote exposes him to challenges from rivals of any kind, he will find a way to delay the election.”

“We’ve already been in that film,” the activist said. “He made the announcement because he knows people are angry about his recent move to introduce his son, Yasser Abbas, to Fatah’s central committee. He is trying now to shift public attention to something else so there will be less talk on that issue,” he charged.

Abbas’s presidential decree called on “the Palestinian people in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip to participate in free and direct elections.”

Rahal noted that Israel’s approval is required to conduct voting in east Jerusalem and Gaza, and “without it the process could be disrupted.”

Given the current circumstances, they explained, the vote is seen as essential not only to signal Abbas’s intent to renew legitimacy both domestically and internationally, but also “to avoid giving the Israelis an excuse to claim that the PA is corrupt and not a viable partner.”

“Abbas seeks to demonstrate seriousness to the US administration, as it has already conditioned future progress toward Palestinian statehood and engagement in post-Gaza arrangements on meaningful reforms,” Rahal said.