Prominent Lebanese Shi'ite cleric Jaafarite Mufti Ahmad Qabalan insisted that following the “Iranian victory” in forming a deal with the United States, Lebanon must "change the government" and form a "strong partnership" with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, Lebanese media reported on Monday.
While the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding have not yet been published, Iranian media reported that the terms included an immediate release of $12 billion in frozen assets, with a further $12 billion to be released at a later date, the end of Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli experts who spoke with The Jerusalem Post on Monday largely discredited the Iranian reports, arguing the Tehran-funded reports were little more than an unrealistic “wish list.”
"Because the factors that brought the pro-Washington camp to power have ended with this war, the current government must be changed calmly and within national balances," the Vice President of the Supreme Islamic Shi'ite Council said.
"Aoun must also withdraw from direct negotiations with Israel, which lost the war of the century," Qabalan added.
Lebanese president increasingly frustrated with Hezbollah
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has grown increasingly vocal in his frustration with Hezbollah and its backer, Iran, for dragging the country into another war with Israel and continuing to violate the law in March, which attempted to ban Hezbollah's military and security activities.
Aoun accused the Islamic Republic of using Lebanon “for the sake of your [Iran’s] own interest” in an interview with CNN last week, and there has been mounting pressure for the Lebanese president to withdraw from talks with Israel on a security agreement.
Hezbollah first dragged Lebanon into war on October 8, 2023, a day after its Hamas allies murdered 1200 people during its invasion of southern Israel, and then returned Lebanon to conflict after a brief period of calm in response to the assassination of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The resulting talks between Israel and Lebanon, through Washington, has led many experts to view Hezbollah’s actions over the past three years as a sequence of costly failures, experts previously explained to the Post.
"With the historic Washington–Tehran agreement, we are now facing a Middle East shaped by Iranian conditions," Qabalan said, adding that the "notion that ‘no one negotiates on behalf of Lebanon’ has collapsed."
Iran's goal of exporting Islamic revolution
Speaking to the Post on Tuesday, Lieutenant-Colonel (res.) Dr. Moran Levanoni, a researcher with the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that the Islamic Republic’s goal since the 1979 takeover of Iran has been to export its Islamic revolution, threatening the sovereignty of countries with a Shi'ite minority population.
“The struggle now in Lebanon is between the implementation of its own sovereignty over Lebanon, and Hezbollah trying to build a large influence of Iran in Lebanon,” Levanoni explained. “I think that if the agreement between the United States and Iran is as it is now published in the news, it is a big setback for the pro-sovereignty groups in Lebanon, a big blow for them, and encouragement for deeper and deeper involvement of Iran within Lebanon.”
Levanoni urged that Jerusalem continue pursuing dialogue with Beirut, claiming that only such talks could strengthen Lebanon’s sovereignty, which is in Israel’s best interest, given that the alternative is potentially a new Iran as a neighbor.