US President Donald Trump’s relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is “somewhat” “calming down” the increasingly strained relationship between Jerusalem and Ankara, Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies specializing in Turkish affairs, told The Jerusalem Post earlier this week.
Lindenstrauss spoke with the Post only days after Turkey’s Interior Minister, Mustafa Ciftci, told crowds at the AK Party Corum Provincial Advisory Council meeting he had aspirations to one day govern Jerusalem, and that he hoped “those lands will be ours once again.”
“God willing, they will come under our sovereignty and dominion once more. Because we have a global leader like Recep Tayyip Erdogan at our helm. A world leader,” Ciftci said.
The Ottoman Empire controlled Israel for more than 400 years, ending when it lost to the Allied forces in World War I. In 1918, its leadership signed the Armistice of Mudros, surrendering to Britain.
Ciftci’s comments, which were widely condemned by Israeli officials, add to an “existing tensions,” Lindenstrauss explained.
“While this can one could dismiss this rhetoric as only one of one minister, it has to be seen in the context of other worrying remarks,” she asserted.
Erdogan stance on Israel since October 7 attacks
Erdogan has made numerous inflammatory comments directed at Israel since Hamas launched its October 7, 2023 attacks, dragging Gaza into the war and resulting humanitarian crisis. His condemnation of Israel is particularly notable as Turkey was once the first Muslim country to recognize the Jewish state less than a year after Israel declared independence.
Though Ciftci’s remarks alluded to an Ottoman occupation of Israeli territory, which is considered Palestinian territory for those advocating for a one-state solution, Lindenstrauss said she very much doubted that much outrage would be stirred across the Arab world. However, she cautioned that such a statement could further embroil Ankara in the battle for the country to head the Muslim world. The competition is largely taking place in the Palestinian territories and found in issues relating to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“Turkey’s involvement in east Jerusalem was more dominant in previous years and actually, because of the war, is a little bit less dramatic than it used to be. It’s definitely raised eyebrows both in Saudi Arabia and in Jordan,” she said. “Turkey has been involved both with [giving] support to the Palestinian Authority and also with, what Turkey claims to be only political support but Israel sees as more widespread, support to Hamas.”
Additionally, amid rumors of Qatari plans to expel Hamas leadership during the hostage negotiations between the Iran-backed terror group and Israel, Turkey was largely named as the terrorists’ future host nation, cementing Turkey’s growing position of influence in the region.
Through “balancing” relations with both the PA and Hamas, Ankara has cemented its position as “one of the guarantors to the Palestinian cause in the international arena.”
Holding Turkey back from further entrenching its position as a main Palestinian backer is its NATO membership, she continued, especially as the country is set to host a NATO summit in July. This, combined with Erdogan’s relationship with Trump, has meant that Turkey must delicately balance its Western relationships with its more extremist ones.
Ankara using US relationship to dissolve Kurdish groups
Ankara is also now utilizing those relationships as part of its wider aim to disarm and dissolve Kurdish groups, she continued, referencing reports that Erdogan had asked Trump to abandon his plans to utilize Kurdish militias on the Iraqi border in the war against Iran.
“One of the concerns of military confrontation between the US and Israel with Iran was that indeed the Kurds of Iran would strengthen, perhaps even gain some autonomous rule, and that would also endanger the process Turkey’s leading with the with the PKK on its dissolvement and disarmament,” she explained. “This again goes hand-in-hand with the assessment of what are the Turkish fears of this violent confrontation with Iran. How realistic the plan to involve the Kurds was in the first place, one can question, but we know that definitely Erdogan tried to block it.”
Hit significantly less than other regional countries during the March war, Ankara is also interested in avoiding becoming a target for Tehran. Earlier, it had prepared to absorb Iran’s missiles and an influx of refugees, but was largely spared except economically, she explained.
“Turkey will largely try to remain uninvolved militarily. It will support the diplomatic front. It supported the Pakistan mediation efforts, Qatar mediation efforts, Omani mediation efforts,” she concluded. “So it will remain in this mediation level. It also said it might assist in the crisis surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but overall, I believe it will do its best to remain uninvolved militarily and only try to influence the diplomatic front.”