Hamas will soon enter the disarmament process, the IDF said on Friday.
The announcement was aspirational, in that Hamas has not yet done so, and no one can really know whether the Gazan terror group will follow through, but it showed a growing confidence from IDF sources that Hamas overall is leaning toward taking painful steps to keep Israel from reinvading Gaza.
Next, the IDF was very vague about what it believed this disarmament would consist of.
The US said around three months ago that by late April-early May, Hamas would need to start handing over its heavy weapons, such as its remaining rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles, and maps of its as-yet uncharted terror tunnels.
Until the IDF statement, there had been significant media speculation that Hamas might use Israel and the US being distracted by the Iran war to drag out the deadline for starting the first disarmament stage.
In fact, in public, Hamas has demanded that Israel allow more rebuilding of Gaza processes to take place before it would be asked to start to disarm.
Absent Israel allowing more rebuilding, Hamas earlier this week conditionally rejected US demands to start disarming.
The IDF statement appears to reflect deeper confidence that Hamas may negotiate some concessions from the US and Israeli side, but that it will ultimately begin the disarmament process, a radical step it has never taken before.
No date for when Hamas needs to proceed to stage two of disarmament
That said, even if that step occurs, there is no deadline for when Hamas might need to give up its Kalashnikov rifles (stage two of disarmament), which help it dominate Gaza, and it is unclear if Hamas would ever do so, since such a step might truly risk losing control of the Strip.
No one has even discussed with any real seriousness the possibility that Hamas might give up its small weapons, such as handguns (stage three of disarmament)
On January 28, regarding scenarios for disarming Hamas, the IDF rejected ideas that have been leaked by US officials of focusing at this stage on collecting Hamas's "heavy" weapons, such as rockets and rocket-propelled grenades, for storage.
According to the IDF, on January 28, placing these and any other Hamas weapons in storage would be essentially allowing them to keep their weapons, but just change their address.
In fact, the IDF said that putting such weapons in storage in Gaza would barely even slow down Hamas from assembling its weapons, as they would either control the limited storage guards or would easily overpower them.
Further, the IDF stated on January 28 that merely collecting those kinds of heavy weapons would fall far short of being sufficient, as seizing Hamas's Kalashnikov rifles would be crucial to limiting its lethal capacity in any battle with the military.
A large number of the October 7 victims were killed by Kalashnikov rifles, which are far more formidable and have a longer range than simpler handguns, which the IDF might be able to tolerate Hamas having for a longer period of time.
The IDF clarified that the International Stabilization Force (ISF) would not perform any significant duties within Hamas-controlled areas.
Rather, it would focus on new neighborhoods for Gazans in Israel-controlled portions of Gaza and on policing the Israel-Hamas yellow line, while other reports have said they will also handle some other border issues.
Next, the IDF said that in a best-case scenario, Hamas's security control of Gaza might turn from its fully green color to a metaphorical lighter shade of green if the future Palestinian police force gets off the ground and can keep committed Hamas fighters within its ranks to a minimum.