With the current ceasefire in the Iran war, Israel has time to take stock of what is changing in the region. One narrative about the Israeli and American operations against the Islamic Republic is that it will redraw the region. It has been doing this by weakening the Iranian regime and thus weakening the regime’s backing of its proxies.
As this continues, Israel’s power will increase, and groups such as Hezbollah are likely to be sidelined.
One place that Israel should consider a shift in policy in order to cement the new regional order is Syria. However, it doesn’t appear as though Israel’s leadership is ready to change its mind on Damascus.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a statement in front of a map of the Middle East. This is the kind of talk that he is known for. Netanyahu likes props and maps.
The map was coded white, red, and blue. All the red countries appeared to be linked to Iran and its proxy groups, which include Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza – the Iranian axis.
Israel was coded blue, and the West Bank was included within Israel. The other countries were all white.
However, Syria is no longer part of the Iranian axis. On December 8, 2024, the Assad regime – already weakened by a decade of civil war that left much of the country in ruins – fell. At the time, Israeli officials appeared to take credit for helping topple the Syrian regime.
Yet Israel also launched massive airstrikes in Syria on that same day. The goal was apparently to deny whoever might take over the country the chance to use its weapons against Israel.
Syria has pushed for peace since fall of Assad
Since then, Syrians have demonstrated that they want to rebuild their country and achieve peace.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that everything has gone smoothly. The new government in Damascus opposes Iran and Hezbollah. The Islamic Republic backed the Assad regime and used Syria to move weapons to Hezbollah.
Israel waged what is known as the “Campaign Between the Wars” in Syria during the Syrian civil war. The goal was to prevent Iranian entrenchment. Thousands of strikes targeted Iranian weapons moving to Hezbollah. This was revealed by former Israel Air Force chief Amir Eshel back in 2017, and former IDF chief of staff Avi Kohavi also discussed it in 2021. As such, it is known that Israel was fighting a quiet conflict against Iran in Syria, using air power.
Hezbollah intervened in Syria to back Assad. It lost hundreds of fighters, perhaps even thousands, while suppressing the Syrians.
The new president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, knows well the evils of the Islamic Republic of Iran and of Hezbollah.
However, Israel has not taken the opportunity to build positive ties with Damascus. Instead, Israeli officials have viewed the new government of Syria as unstable, and they called Sharaa a “jihadist.” Some Israeli officials have even threatened to eliminate Syria’s president over the past year.
Part of the anti-Sharaa antics relates to Jerusalem’s claimed desire to support the Druze in southern Syria. However, the support of the Druze having rights in Syria is a policy goal that offers no clear discussion about the rest of Syria. The Druze live in Sweida, a relatively small area in southern Syria. They are unlikely to create an independent state. Jordan and other countries would oppose this. Also, the Druze are not going to control all of Syria.
In January, the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces created an agreement. This has led Damascus to consolidate control over eastern Syria. The US, which backed the SDF, has also backed the agreement. US officials such as Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who is also the US special envoy to Syria, have played a key role.
The US has ended sanctions on Syria, and Syria’s government has been hosting many international delegations, such as Ukraine’s president. Syria has good relations with countries all around the world and in the region. As such, it seems logical that Israel would build warmer ties with Damascus. Syrian officials have indicated that they don’t want tensions with Israel, and as recently as January, the US, Syria, and Israel had a trilateral meeting.
Syria can be helpful to Israel against Hezbollah and also on other issues. The question for Israel is how to get the policy tanker to shift course. Foreign policy is like an oil tanker; sometimes it can’t move quickly. The map used by Israel’s prime minister indicates this.
The red coding for Syria is symbolic, and it’s not just a mistake. Coding Syria as still part of Iran’s axis is a decision, though Syria is not linked to Iran today. The map can’t be read any other way. For instance, Afghanistan, although led by the Taliban, is not coded in red. Neither is Pakistan. The red coding is solely for countries linked to Iran, not specifically countries that Israel sees as hostile.
Why does Israel continue to view Syria as an enemy when Syria wants warmer ties? What is gained? Who benefits from the tensions?
Israel is already at war in Lebanon and still has not defeated Hamas in Gaza.
Israel also recently waged a month-and-a-half-long war with Iran. Having a rapprochement with Syria would benefit Jerusalem in the region. It would also benefit the Druze in southern Syria because it could enable more reasonable discussions, rather than threats and ill-conceived assumptions about what comes next.
The Kurds in eastern Syria have made the pragmatic choice to move toward working with Damascus. Kurdish officials such as Sipan Hemo have become officials of Syria’s Defense Ministry. This is the path forward that is being crafted. There are challenges, of course, but diplomacy generally can smooth the way.
So far, wars with Gaza and Lebanon have not led to a Clausewitz-style political strategic victory for Israel. Syria provides an opportunity. It remains to be seen whether that opportunity can be utilized.
Changing the symbolic map being used by Israel’s prime minister’s office would be one way to illustrate that symbolic changes are happening.