The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen launched a military offensive across the south of the country last Tuesday. It took control of the oil- and resource-rich Hadramout Governorate, as well as other parts of the region, including Aden, by this Monday.
This major power shift within Yemen – which splintered into several sections during the civil war, while its front lines remained relatively stable – could cause widespread regional ramifications.
The STC joined together with the Saudi-backed and internationally recognized anti-Houthi government based out of Aden in 2022. STC President Aidarus al-Zubaidi was appointed as vice president of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).
Tensions remained, however, as the STC was more separatist in its goals, while Saudi-backed factions wished to regain sovereignty over the whole of Yemen, including Houthi-controlled territories in the north.
STC officials in Aden said other PLC leaders, including PLC President Rashad al-Alimi, had escaped to Riyadh before STC forces entered the historic capital of the defunct People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen).
This was despite the STC ordering them to remain, senior STC official Amr al-Bidh told Reuters.
Furthermore, in a trilateral meeting with Iran and China, the three countries “reaffirmed their support for a comprehensive political solution,” the report said.
UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg met with Saudi, UAE, and UN Security Council representatives in Riyadh on Tuesday. He called for de-escalation through dialogue and said all actors should exercise restraint.
Nevertheless, the STC’s takeover will lead to a reduction in Saudi influence in Yemen. So far, tensions do not appear to have emerged between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the developments. The STC is attempting to mitigate the risks posed by this, appeasing the Saudis.
On Tuesday, Zubaidi held a meeting with STC leaders and praised the “great support” provided by the Saudi- and UAE-led anti-Houthi coalition and the efforts the two Arab powerhouses took “that contributed to establishing security and stability.”
The UAE’s position on Yemen “is in line with Saudi Arabia in supporting a political process,” a UAE official told Reuters on Monday.
Thus, the relations between the two most influential Sunni countries in the region appear to remain stable – at least in the short term. But a loss of Saudi influence in southern Yemen is liable to cause future tensions.
Houthis unlikely to be weakened by STC's growth, independent South Yemen
How are the Houthis reacting?
Yemen’s Houthis are largely unaffected by this change militarily. To the terrorists based in northern Yemen, it makes little difference in the ongoing civil war whether they are fighting against Saudi-or UAE-backed forces, or other tribal or Jihadist elements present in southern Yemen.
A key part of deterring and weakening the Houthis military, however, has been Saudi airstrikes against their infrastructure, especially in their capital, Sanaa. With weakened Saudi influence and motivation in the south, it may cause Riyadh to lower its priorities vis-a-vis attacking the Houthis.
The Houthis are also not largely susceptible to a conventional military invasion, as their positions are defended by high mountain ranges, which are often only traversable by a single route. That gives them easily defensible positions against a potential STC push into the north.
The STC’s takeover will lead to “further chaos and division,” Mohammad Mansour, undersecretary of the Houthi Information Ministry, told Beirut-based and Houthi-run Almasirah TV. He blamed both the UAE and Saudi Arabia to differing degrees.
“The Arab Zionists wanted to prevent the raising of the Yemeni flag,” Mansour said, adding that any “future escalation” would be a US-Israeli-British action, even if fought by “proxy forces” based out of Yemen.
STC to push for independent South Yemen?
Local reports have indicated that the STC, which adopted the defunct national flag of South Yemen, has erected that flag on government and official buildings across the region. Furthermore, STC’s official social media appears to show rallies across the region of supporters calling for an independent South Yemen state.
In addition, Zubaidi, at Monday’s STC meeting, said the next phase would be “one of intensive work to build the institutions of the future South Arabian state.”
This does not mean an independent South Yemen is around the corner, however, as the STC greatly needs to stabilize its control over the territory, including the removal of the remnant al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) terrorists, largely operating in Hadramout, as well as its relations with regional and international partners, with the goal of seeking legitimacy as the internationally recognized government.
This may be why the STC wanted Alimi and other PLC leaders to remain in Aden, and their flight to Riyadh may weaken the STC’s legitimacy in the eyes of their partners.
The oil-rich area, however, along with UAE and likely increased international support, may lead to a future South Yemen state in the short to medium term.
Opportunities for Israel, including oil, Abraham Accords expansion
How does this affect Israel?
Such developments are unlikely to directly affect Israel vis-a-vis Houthi terrorism, including launching ballistic missiles and attacking vessels in the Red Sea, as the Iran-backed terrorist group maintains the same amount of control as before.
Zubaidi, while attending the UN General Assembly in September, however, told Abu Dhabi’s state-owned outlet, The National, that an independent South Yemen would join the Abraham Accords and establish relations with Israel.
Before the Israel-Hamas War, the STC was “advancing towards joining the Abraham Accords,” he said at the time.
“When we have our southern state, we will make our own decisions, and I believe we will be part of these accords,” Zubaidi said, adding that it might be contingent on an independent Palestinian state being established.
If a South Yemen is declared, it could therefore lead to Israel gaining a key ally in the region, enhance its strategic position to weaken Iran’s influence in the Gulf of Aden and against the Houthis, and improve its resource ties with Arabian partners given southern Yemen’s rich supply of natural resources, particularly oil, gas, and natural minerals.