New clashes near the border area between Israel and Syria have once again illustrated how Jerusalem risks being dragged into further tensions with Damascus due to a policy that lacks a clear goal.
Israeli forces pushed into a buffer zone on the Syrian border a year ago, when the Assad regime fell from power. The theory at the time was that Israel would preempt any chance that hostile forces might enter the buffer zone, which was established in 1974 during the ceasefire following the Yom Kippur War.
According to several reports, the IDF had to deal with tensions near the Syrian town of Khan Arnabah, one of the Syrian areas near the border. Syrian state media SANA noted that “three civilians were injured Tuesday after Israeli forces opened fire on them at a checkpoint set up between the town of Khan Arnabah and the village of Ain Aisha in the northern Quneitra countryside.”
The Syrian reports said that a “SANA reporter in Quneitra said that an Israeli force, consisting of five military vehicles carrying soldiers, set up a checkpoint on the old highway connecting Khan Arnabah and Ain Aisha. The force fired bullets and smoke grenades at civilians and blocked the passage of passersby, resulting in three civilians being directly injured.”
In addition, it noted, “Israel continues to violate the 1974 Disengagement Agreement through repeated incursions into the Quneitra and Daraa countryside and attacks on civilians. Syria has called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from its territory and urged the international community to take action to prevent further incidents.”
This is the most serious clash since late November, when Syrians were killed in Beit Jinn and several IDF soldiers were wounded. That incident unfolded after a night raid on the Syrian village, located a mile or so from the border zone.
The new clashes at Khan Arnabah were documented by several videos posted on social media. These appear to show clashes and numerous people gathered in the streets. One video seems to show local Syrian security personnel. Another shows a truck passing on a road and what appears to be civil defense or medical personnel. A third video seems to show Syrians evacuating their wounded.
The overall context of the clashes is not entirely clear.
The IDF was operating in the area, and there were protests or riots, according to reports. The challenge for the continued operations near the buffer zone is that the IDF is inevitably going to come increasingly in contact with Syrian civilians. In other conflicts, such as Gaza and Lebanon, the IDF has usually called for civilians to evacuate areas before occupying them or operating in them.
Throughout the Israel-Hamas War, over a million people were displaced several times as the military moved from northern to southern Gaza and then back again. In September alone, around a million people had to be evacuated from Gaza City. This was considered the norm in Gaza, and, in general, this method of warfare was seen as the only way to operate in Gaza.
However, when it comes to Syria, it is unclear whether the international community will accept Israel demanding that hundreds of thousands of people leave southern Syria. A year after the Assad regime fell, it would not look good for Israel to be displacing Syrians who have only recently been able to have a life free from conflict. As such, the IDF is operating in and near villages, and inevitable frictions are developing with villagers.
When the Assad regime fell, there was chaos on the border. These villages are mostly made up of Sunni Arabs, although Khader, near Majdal Shams, is a Druze village. The Arab villages were mostly affiliated with the Syrian rebels between 2012 and 2018. The Syrian regime retook many of these areas near the border in 2018. Nevertheless, most of the people remained sympathetic to the rebels.
Many of these villages also benefited from limited Israeli aid between 2015 and 2018. Some even got medical treatment in Israel. As such, there was a warmth toward the Jewish state in these villages when the Assad regime fell. Most of these people continued to have a “wait and see” attitude regarding Israel for months.
However, it appears that the civilians are growing frustrated. The clashes in Beit Jinn and now Khan Arnabah illustrate a trend.
Israel’s operations in Syrian villages are being met with more anger by locals. Jerusalem has demanded that southern Syria be demilitarized. This means that those areas are a power vacuum of low-level chaos, which can lead to threats.
However, the policy in Israel is to prefer low-level chaos, similar to the preference for this in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank. The alternative would be to have the Syrian government return and control its areas of the border. The people would welcome this. It is clear that people in Daraa and Quneitra want to have freedom, and their hope is linked to the new government.
In Busra al-Sham, Daraa province, which is near the Jordanian border and an hour’s drive from the Golan, there were huge celebrations on December 7 for the anniversary of the fall of the Assad regime.
There is also pressure from the Trump administration for Israel to conduct dialogue with Syria and not escalate tensions.
US President Donald Trump may raise this in subsequent meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio may also raise this. Overall, the US wants Syria to succeed. Clashes with Israel don’t lead to success and will likely lead to diminishing returns for the Jewish state and harm the interests of Damascus and Jerusalem.
Israel is sensitive to stories in regional media about Israel and Syria talks. For instance, the Prime Minister’s Office put out a statement today about a report in the Saudi media that said Netanyahu refused to sign a security agreement with Damascus. “Absolute fake news. There were contacts and meetings organized by the US, but no agreements and understandings with Syria were ever reached.”
Israel has made it clear that it has demands of Syria. The demilitarization demand was addressed by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the recent Doha Forum. He said it would be dangerous for Syria. Israel wants a large swath of Syria demilitarized between Damascus and the border. Prior to the fall of the regime, this area was used by pro-Iranian militias to threaten Israel. A new power vacuum could lead to further threats.
Jordan likely doesn’t want a power vacuum. Israel says it wants to back the Druze in Sweida, and a demilitarized zone in Quneitra and Daraa near the border would enable the IDF to easily reach them. This leaves many questions about the future.
Tuesday’s clashes once again illustrate how Israel’s policy lacks clarity. The more the IDF ends up chafing against civilians, the more likely it is that clashes will break out, unless some kind of entity can assist in deconflicting.