On July 30, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced his intention to recognize an independent Palestinian state with conditions at the UN General Assembly in September. Calling the path to a two-state solution “untenable,” he opened the door to recognition due to Hamas’s terrorism, settlement expansion, and a “rapidly deteriorating humanitarian disaster” in Gaza.
The announcement came after France and Britain declared similar intentions. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Mahmoud Abbas has threatened to declare one unilaterally. But what does it mean to declare a Palestinian state? Does international recognition create a new country?
Not exactly. Under the Montevideo Convention of 1933, a state must have four characteristics: a defined territory; a permanent population; a government; and the capacity to enter into relations with other states.
1. Defined territory
The internationally recognized borders of a potential Palestinian state are generally the West Bank, Gaza, and east Jerusalem. However, this definition is not universally accepted. Israel has established communities in Judea and Samaria, and annexed east Jerusalem in 1980. Gaza was unilaterally disengaged by Israel in 2005 and became a de facto separate Hamas state-let in 2007, following its overthrow of the PA.
Not only are the international territories designated for a state fragmented into non-contiguous zones, but each has different political frameworks. A declaration will not change geopolitical realities.
2. Permanent population
Defining the population is equally complex. The 1922 British Mandate for Palestine envisioned a Jewish national home, including Jewish immigration, without harming the rights of non-Jewish communities. Today, the proposed state includes territories where Jews have lived continuously for millennia and many Jews still live.
Meanwhile, millions of Arabs live within Israel proper, many of whom are Israeli citizens. The PLO Charter refers to Palestine as the homeland of Arab Palestinians but acknowledges the rights of pre-Zionist Jews. However, questions about who qualifies as part of the population, especially in the context of mixed cities, refugee populations, and Palestinian citizens of Israel, remain unresolved. Not to mention issues such as the right of return.
3. Government
Even more problematic is governance. Currently, four distinct authorities operate across what is considered Palestinian land: Hamas in Gaza; Israel in east Jerusalem (annexed and governed as part of Israel) and inside Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria (through Military Orders); COGAT (Israel’s military-civilian authority) in large parts of Judea and Samaria; and the PA in other parts (Area A) of Judea and Samaria.
The PA is recognized internationally as the representative government of the Palestinians, but it has little control over Gaza and weak control in areas under Israeli jurisdiction (Oslo Accords Area B). Hamas operates an entirely separate administration in Gaza, complete with ministries, police, and tax collection.
4. Capacity to enter into relations with other states
Despite lacking the other three Montevideo criteria, Palestine has had notable diplomatic success. It is recognized by 147 states, holds “non-member observer state” status at the UN, and has been a member of the International Criminal Court since 2014. It has signed and ratified many international conventions.
However, these are largely symbolic. Lacking effective control over land, a cohesive population, and a single government, Palestine cannot enforce obligations or implement agreements. Its capacity to engage internationally exists only on paper.
Declarations of recognition are symbolic gestures in the arena of international diplomacy. They do not create functioning states. Statehood requires real power on the ground – governance, security, economic systems, legal institutions, not just diplomatic statements.
If established today, a Palestinian state would likely rank among the world’s most failed and fragile entities, lacking control over its borders, population, and internal administration. Fragmented by war, divided politically, and with no unified territory, the structure of a viable state is simply not there. That is, on internationally recognized territory that Israel will not control.
A wave of Western countries recognizing Palestine intensifies Israel’s PR battle. This is perhaps the reason that Hamas has applauded the recognition. However, even if the world came together and imposed a state, its ability to function would be compromised without answering fundamental questions of the definition of statehood.
With the war, and with no consensus on land, population, or leadership, the path to a real Palestinian state anytime soon remains blocked. Declarations will not change this reality.■