Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan forge new alliance as Middle East order shifts - analysis

This has raised some eye brows about the ramifications of the deal, because these countries are all key US partners in the region. Turkey is a NATO ally. Where does this leave Israel? And why was Egypt excluded? Egypt is a friend of Saudi Arabia but it was not included in the deal?

In Jerusalem there are some voices that argue that the emergence of powerful Sunni countries working together could hint at future opposition to Israel. Turkey is a vocal critic of Israel. Saudi Arabia was once believed to be a possible partner in the Abraham Accords. As such, the new deal illustrates that while the Abraham Accords remain relevant, Israel could be missing opportunities.

Bellicose rhetoric in Jerusalem against Syria has caused concern in Ankara, Riyadh and also Washington. There are questions about whether Israel wants peace and to expand the Abraham Accords or whether more militant voices in Jerusalem will seek to talk up conflict with Damascus and Ankara.

The chaos erodes the US-led world order that emerged after the Cold War and also after the Gulf War. Saudi Arabia needed the US to help defend it in 1990 against the threat of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Now, Riyadh wants to work closely with other countries as it wonders about the future.

The new alliance will include joint exercises and deepen defence industry cooperation under a military pact, Reuters reports. Reuters added that “the three Sunni Muslim US allies, alarmed by a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters, signed the ‘Mecca Joint Defence Agreement’ on August 7.

They ⁠said the accord stipulates that an armed attack against any member would be regarded as an attack on all, similar to NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause.”

The Middle East is witnessing the emergence of two different models for regional cooperation. One is represented by the Abraham Accords, which marked their sixth anniversary this year and sought to reshape the region through normalization, economic growth and technological cooperation between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain.

Morocco is also a key member. Other Middle Eastern countries were expected to join. What about the new alliance, embodied in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, a security pact centered on military cooperation and collective defense.

Although these initiatives are not necessarily incompatible, they reflect different strategic priorities that have emerged after years of regional conflict.

Jared Kushner, who played a key role in the Abraham Accords, wrote on X/Twitter on August 13 that “for too long, the region was trapped by old ideas and failed frameworks that managed conflict rather than solved it, and too often created incentives that perpetuated division and instability.”

Kushner says that “the Middle East is once again at an inflection point. There are breakthrough opportunities today that many will say are impossible. But we have seen what can happen when leaders reject conventional thinking, focus on common interests, and have the courage to pursue a better future.”

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan announced their new agreement in response to a new security environment following the escalation with Iran.

The agreement calls for closer political and military coordination, expanded joint exercises, defense industrial cooperation and collaboration in areas such as unmanned systems, artificial intelligence and electronic warfare. US President Donald Trump will likely welcome this because he wants to see US allies shouldering the burden for defense.

Saudi Arabia brings substantial financial resources to the new deal. It also holds a central position in the Arab and Islamic world. US President Trump made early important foreign visits to Saudi Arabia in his first and second term.

Turkey is one of NATO's largest militaries and has an increasingly sophisticated local defense industry. Trump was in Turkey earlier this year for a NATO meeting. He also met Syria’s president when he went to Turkey. Saudi has backed US support for Syria’s new government.

By contrast, some voices in Jerusalem have claimed that Israel will fight a future conflict with Syria. This has raised eyebrows in the Middle East.

The Saudi-backed agreement reflects broader changes in regional strategic thinking. For decades, Gulf security rested on American military support. The US had bases in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s and built important bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE.

This new agreement of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan does not necessarily represent a shift in regards to how these countries will work with the US. It illustrates their desire for greater regional coopertion at a time when conflicts involving Iran, the Red Sea and Iraq have demonstrated the limits of relying on outside powers.

During the Cold War countries had to choose with the USSR or the US. The Islamic Revolution in Iran sought to carve out a third way between the two. When the Soviet Union fell apart most countries came to accept the US-led world order.

However, over the last decade these countries have come to wrestle with what a new multi-polar world order may look like. They want to hedge and prepare for the future. The Abraham Accords represented one future. However, there is a sense that Jerusalem is increasingly hostile to Saudi Arabia, Syria and other countries.

If Israel won’t find a way to accommodate Riyadh’s demands regarding a shift in policy regarding the Palestinians, Saudi Arabia is showing it will move on and find other partners.

The Abraham Accords were designed to reduce old divisions by creating new relationships that crossed historical political and religious lines. Israel and several Arab states have increasingly worked together on technology, intelligence, defense and investment.

The Abraham Accords represented an economic and diplomatic revolution. The new defense agreement that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have entered into reflects a sense that they need to work together as the world rapidly changes.

There is also a broader strategic question. Could these two visions eventually converge? Saudi Arabia sits at the center of both discussions. It remains the country whose normalization with Israel would fundamentally transform the Abraham Accords. At the same time, it is now helping construct one of the region's new defense partnerships.

Instead of seeing the two developments as contradictory, they could become complementary. A more advanced regional security strategy could strengthen deterrence against common threats, while normalization could expand economic opportunities and reduce the likelihood of future conflict.

The anniversary of the Abraham Accords comes at a moment of transition. The region is increasingly shaped by a combination of factors. The challenge for policymakers will be to examine the ramifications of the new deals being achieved and to see if Israel and the Abraham Accords countries might find a way to partner with other states.