Former prime minister Naftali Bennett surged by three seats to 22 after presenting his draft law framework, which he said he would advance if he wins the next election, according to a Maariv poll released on Friday.
Despite Bennett’s gains, the opposition’s net increase is just one seat, as Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beytenu each lost one seat. Yair Golan’s Democrats, after bringing prominent protest figures into the party, held steady on 10 seats.
Parties failing to cross the threshold were Blue and White (2.2%), Religious Zionist Party (2.2%), Balad (1.8%), and the Reservists list (2.7%).
When respondents were asked, “If the following parties run in the next Knesset election, for whom would you vote?”, the results were: Likud 27, unchanged; Bennett 22, up from 19; The Democrats and Eisenkot both unchanged at 10; Yisrael Beytenu 9, down from 10; Otzma Yehudit 9, down from 10; Yesh Atid 8, down from 9; Shas 8, unchanged; United Torah Judaism 7, unchanged; Hadash–Ta’al and Ra’am unchanged at 5.
Replacing Smotrich as head of RZP could save the party
The poll also found that appointing Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofir Winter to head Religious Zionist Party in place of Bezalel Smotrich would allow the party to cross the threshold with six seats.
Under this scenario, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition would gain three seats to 54, with the opposition at 56 and the Arab parties retaining 10.
A clear majority of Israelis, 74%, fear that violence in the Arab sector will spill over into wider Israeli society. Additionally, 68% worry that political discourse will turn violent ahead of the next election, while 25% do not share that concern and 7% are unsure.
The poll, conducted January 7–8, surveyed 503 respondents representing Israel’s adult population, Jewish and Arab, with a maximum sampling error of ±4.4%. Findings were reported by Maariv and compiled by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4All.