Ten days before the start of the Knesset summer recess, the government lost its parliamentary majority after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to deliver on his promise to present a bill enshrining a draft exemption for the haredim.
The two ultra-Orthodox parties – United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas – quit the government, leaving Netanyahu with the support of only three parties: Likud, and the two far-right parties – the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit – a total of only 50 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset.
Despite the development, the haredi parties, critically, did not leave the coalition and will not join forces with the opposition to topple the government at this juncture. However, if no compromise is reached on the draft law during the three-month Knesset recess, it is expected that after the start of the Knesset’s winter session on October 19, a date will be set for new elections, probably in early 2026.
The haredi draft saga
The previous exemption for haredi men ended with a High Court ruling in June 2024; in the absence of new legislation, the current legal status requires the enlistment of all of the approximately 80,000 eligible haredi men.
The 21-month Gaza war, the longest in Israel’s history, has placed an unprecedented strain on the Israel Defense Forces manpower requirements. The army has lost thousands of troops – killed or wounded – and the military says it urgently needs an additional 10,000 combat soldiers. Politicians can no longer turn a blind eye to the fact that the overwhelming majority of haredim do not enlist and can no longer ignore the High Court ruling requiring all sectors of society to share the burden.
The issue has also caused rifts within the governing coalition. Many of the voters of the right-wing parties have already served hundreds of days of reserve duty, causing a huge strain on families, businesses, and academic studies.
In contrast, the ultra-Orthodox parties serve a constituency that, with a few exceptions, does not serve in the army. Calls for a more equitable sharing of the burden have been rebuffed by ultra-Orthodox rabbis and political leaders, who fear that military service will be the first step toward the adoption of a more secular lifestyle.
UTJ Knesset member Moshe Gafni admitted that the haredim had made a serious mistake when they agreed to support the judicial overhaul before legislation was passed exempting the ultra-Orthodox from the draft. He lashed out at his former far-right coalition partners, describing Smotrich as “worse than secular Jews” in an interview with haredi news outlet Kikar Hashabbat. “Without Torah students, we have no existence as a Jewish people. Without Torah students, the State of Israel cannot continue,” Gafni commented, referring to the haredi draft law.
But most of the ultra-Orthodox criticism was reserved for one man: Likud Knesset member Yuli Edelstein, the head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, who was tasked with coming up with a compromise acceptable to all sides, which would also pass the inevitable legal challenge in the High Court.
Shas and UTJ issued a joint statement lashing out at Edelstein, accusing him of obstructing the legislation and backtracking on agreements that had been reached before the war with Iran. “For a year and a half, he has been misleading the negotiating teams, the rabbis, the reservists, the military and security officials, and everyone who genuinely worked to reach a balanced and respectful arrangement on the issue,” the statement claimed. “Edelstein changed the key agreements that had been reached, introducing a series of new restrictions, blatantly harming Torah students and undermining the trust of the partnership with Likud, of which he is a part.”
Edelstein denied the claims, insisting that the draft legislation includes several essential clauses that cannot be compromised. “Effective personal sanctions [on draft dodgers], institutional sanctions if targets are not met, high recruitment targets with rapid growth, and effective oversight and enforcement mechanisms – without these, it won’t be a Draft Law – it’ll be a bluff,” he insisted.
Faced with conflicting demands from all sides, Edelstein faced a mission impossible and realized that if all the haredi demands were met, several coalition lawmakers were likely to vote against, arguing that a bill without biting sanctions would not lead to the massive enlistment the IDF is demanding.
The Israel Defense Forces insists that all yeshiva students must be drafted. Earlier this month, it began sending draft orders to 54,000 haredim eligible for military service. The IDF aims to integrate 4,800 haredim this year, an increase of some 3,000 over past years, with a gradual increase set for the coming years.
IDF generals have pressed the government to impose personal sanctions on individual haredi draft dodgers and plan to step up efforts to detect those resisting the call-up. Airport checks will be increased, along with ad hoc roadblocks around the country, in an effort to catch evaders. However, there are no plans for sweeps within ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods, fearing that such a move would provoke clashes and an unprecedented backlash.
The army disputes the claim made by some rabbis that those who enter the army as haredi will not leave the army as haredi, stressing that a supreme effort has been made to ensure that military service will not lead to haredi recruits abandoning their religious lifestyle. The IDF notes that tens of thousands of soldiers from the National Religious community enlist every year, with rabbinical encouragement, without compromising their belief system. The army also touts the success of two haredi military units that are already serving in combat in the Gaza area, carrying out dozens of missions in which terrorists have been killed.
Visiting the haredi Hashmonaim Brigade earlier this month, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir praised the unit’s contribution. “Your integration into the army is something you should be proud of, and your families and society should be proud of it as well. You are pioneers and trailblazers, leading the way, and I’m sure you will gain recognition,” he said. “I know that some of you may be facing personal challenges, but I am confident, based on my experience, that perseverance is what matters in life,” Zamir continued.
“Today, the Hashmonaim Brigade is fighting in the Gaza Strip, doing extraordinary work there. I believe this proves that faith prevails. In this regard, I want to say again, thank you, and I have great appreciation for what you are doing. Be proud of yourselves,” he concluded.
However, the haredi enlistment to date, albeit significant, remains a drop in the ocean.
The next elections must be held by October 2026 at the latest, but early elections look increasingly likely. Netanyahu also faces the prospect of the total disintegration of his coalition if he clinches a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal that prompts the two far-right parties to leave his government.
According to some analysts, the departure of the haredi parties means that the government’s days are numbered. The prime minister has made a string of concessions to facilitate a hostage release deal, which he sees as a potential vote winner and an election issue that will help divert the focus away from the haredi draft crisis. ■