Defense Minister Israel Katz hinted on Sunday at Israel’s road map in negotiations with the Trump administration on a variety of issues.
In response to a series of analyses and attacks on perceived government policy, he said in a concise but extraordinary statement: “A Palestinian state will not be established. The IDF will remain on top of [the Syrian side of] Mount Hermon and in the security zone. Gaza will be cleared all the way until the last tunnel, and Hamas will be disarmed on the [side of the Yellow Line in Gaza controlled] by the IDF, and on the ‘old side of Gaza’ by international forces – or by the IDF.”
Although the statement mixes and matches a variety of seemingly disconnected issues, the messaging to the Trump administration – which is seeking compromises on the Palestinians, Syrian, and Lebanese tracks – is clear.
Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reject – certainly for the foreseeable future – any concrete attempts to establish a Palestinian state. This is their top priority, even though no one can predict what will happen in 2027 with the next government.
They may be stuck with Trump inserting aspirational long-term language about a pathway toward a Palestinian state in the future, dependent on various hard-to-fulfill conditions, but there will be nothing concrete in the near term.
They also will insist on holding onto the top of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, which Israel took over last December with the fall of the Assad regime.
On top of that, Israel will try to hold a security zone in Syria, although Katz was not as specific about this zone.
Nevertheless, Israel may be preparing to compromise on some of its nine outposts in southern Syria in exchange for a new security deal with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Katz policy: Staged Syria exit, delayed Gaza disarmament
Netanyahu and Katz are not likely to give more than a staged withdrawal from Syria, given that Sharaa has refused requests for a large demilitarized zone and has jihadists holding senior positions in his government.
After holding the line, Katz showed flexibility on Gaza. He hinted that at some point, the IDF might need to take disarming Hamas into its own hands. But he offered time and space for the new international force to handle this.
That means significant time, as the new force will not be deployed earlier than the end of 2026.
It also means leaving Hamas in control without being disarmed from October 4 until the end of the year – nearly three months.
Given that Israel would then need to give the new international force time to do things on its own, it means any serious move to disarm Hamas is probably about half a year away, if not more, and the terrorist group will likely resist overtly or covertly.
But Katz’s statement does show a road map into his and likely Netanyahu’s thinking on these security issues.
Given that he said nothing new about Lebanon, it also indicates that Israel has few expectations for achieving new breakthroughs there, i.e., it will maintain the status quo at least for months and maybe longer.