The Russian Army appears to be poised to capture the key Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, data from the Institute for the Study of War on Friday shows.
Russia has encircled around three-quarters of the eastern Ukrainian city, and assessments from the institute show that the Russian army is more focused on seizing the city rather than the broader region around it.
Ukrainian assessments show that around 300 to 500 Russian soldiers have entered Pokrovsk.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russian soldiers outnumber Ukrainian soldiers eight to one in the eastern city.
Ukrainian Army chief Oleksander Syrski said that the situation on the frontlines near Zaporizhzhia has “significantly worsened,” but noted that the Russians were most active around Pokrovsk.
Additionally, Ukrainian assessments stated that weather conditions have allowed Russian soldiers to enter the city more easily.
Videos that went viral on social media last week show dozens of Russian soldiers entering the village on motorbikes through fog with heavy clouds overhead.
Ukrainian soldiers in the region have stated that the weather conditions, [aired with Russian troop movements, have made it much more difficult to operate drones, which Kyiv has heavily relied on during the war.
“The situation is difficult, with all types of fighting going on, firefights in urban areas, and shelling with all types of weapons,” one battalion commander told CNN.
Another soldier from a drone unit told CNN that “the intensity of their movements is so great that (Ukrainian) drone operators simply cannot keep up with the pace.”
“The Russians often move in groups of three, counting on the fact that two will be destroyed, but one will still reach the city and gain a foothold there,” he added. “About a hundred such groups can pass through in a day.”
Pokrovsk used to be a key frontline city for Ukrainians because of its railroad and highway connections. CNN reported that seven major roads run through the city, to Donetsk and Kostyantynivka lie to the east, and Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia lie to the west.
“It was operationally significant because it was a supply line that supported the Ukrainian logistics, which then fanned out and supported the other Ukrainian tactical positions in smaller villages and in the field around Pokrovsk,” said George Barros, the head of the Rusisa and Geospatial Intelligence at the ISW.
However, Barros noted that heavy drone and artillery attacks on the key roads on which Pokrovsk sits have forced Kyiv to find alternatives.
“From this point further, it doesn’t actually operationally do anything for the Russians, because they already achieved the main effect that they needed to a while ago.”
Pokrovsk would be the largest city the Russian army has captured if it succeeds. Before the war, almost 60,000 citizens lived there. However, now Ukrainian authorities report that only around 1,000 people live in Pokrovsk full-time.
“Strategically, from the political and informational perspective, Pokrovsk is very important, because Vladimir Putin has gone out of his way numerous times to make public national and international statements about the seizure,” Barros told CNN.
“He is conducting a strategic information campaign which seeks to present Russia’s military victory on the battlefield as inevitable.”