As of market close on July 18, spot gold was priced at $3,347.90 per ounce, down modestly from last week's $3,354. Silver stood at $38.11 per ounce, virtually unchanged from $38.23 the week prior. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which tracks major gold miners, slipped 2.1% to 421, reflecting the minor consolidation in the sector. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 98.49, up from 97.80 a week ago, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.41%.
The S&P 500 reached a fresh all-time high of 6,296, but with a week-over-week gain of just 16 points, many analysts are characterizing the move as part of a broader summer stagnation in the financial markets. Brent crude remained flat at $67 per barrel.
In a weekly recap posted on social media, gold analyst Don Durrett summarized the sentiment succinctly: “This was a spin-in-place week... It’s the summer doldrums. Not much action.”
Durrett, founder of GoldStockData.com, highlighted silver’s continued strength above the $35 mark, a level it has now maintained for several weeks, as a potential signal of longer-term support. “The good news is that the floor for silver has likely risen significantly,” he wrote. “The next cycle low will likely be somewhere above $32. It wasn't too long ago when that floor was around $27.”
The gold-silver ratio (GSR) currently stands at 88, indicating that silver remains relatively undervalued compared to gold. Historically, the GSR has averaged around 60 over the last several decades, and silver last peaked near $50 per ounce in April 2011, according to Kitco historical data.
Durrett believes the current consolidation is temporary. “Any correction that comes will likely be short-lived, with gold quickly rebounding (and silver following),” he noted, adding that leading gold miners like Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD) appear undervalued at current prices. He estimates Newmont is generating roughly $1.5 billion in free cash flow per quarter, with a free cash flow margin of $1,200 per ounce.
He also suggested that Hecla Mining (HL) could serve as the leading silver equity once momentum returns to the sector.
"Fear Trade" and Seasonal Weakness on Watch
Durrett emphasizes that a breakout in the HUI above 450 would likely signal the start of a renewed bull cycle for gold miners. However, such a move depends on a shift in investor sentiment, which he calls the “fear trade.” According to him, that shift would only come if the S&P 500 stops its relentless march upward.
High levels of U.S. government debt, sluggishness in housing, autos, and retail, and pressure on the bond market are also contributing to market uncertainty, Durrett added. These macro headwinds could ultimately spark a wave of risk-off selling, fueling inflows into safe-haven assets like gold and silver.